US 10-year yield capped near 4.50% into Q3 2026: payroll-stall case
The US 10-year yield tested 4.50% and failed as June payrolls hit 57K. Why the base case is 4.25% by Q3 2026 — and the CPI print that breaks the call.
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July 2026
USD/JPY to 155 by Q3 2026: the ambush-intervention case
USD/JPY to 155 by Q3 2026: the NFP miss, Japan's new ambush intervention regime and a hiking BOJ squeeze the carry trade. Full levels and invalidation inside.
Gold capped near $4,200 into Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-hold case
Gold (XAU/USD) is capped near $4,200 into Q3 2026 as a hawkish-hold Fed keeps real yields high, while record central-bank buying sets the floor.
EUR/USD capped near 1.17 into Q3 2026: the twin-hawk case
EUR/USD holds a 1.13-1.17 range into Q3 2026 as a hawkish Fed and a newly hiking ECB cancel out — the twin-hawk case, with 1.22 bull and 1.10 bear targets.
June 2026
Nasdaq 100 capped near 32,500 into Q3 2026: the AI-capex case
Nasdaq 100 is capped near 32,500 into Q3 2026 (bull 35,000, bear 28,000) as record AI capex meets a hawkish Warsh Fed. Targets, levels and disconfirmation.
Platinum to $1,750 by Q3 2026: the deficit-floor case
Platinum has fallen ~15% to $1,632/oz on a one-year-high dollar, but WPIC still models a 2026 deficit. Base case $1,750 by Q3 2026, with a floor near $1,450.
USD/CHF to 0.78 by Q3 2026: the franc safe-haven case
USD/CHF heads to 0.78 by Q3 2026 as a soft dollar meets safe-haven franc demand — but the SNB's intervention readiness caps the move. Targets, levels, triggers.
S&P 500 capped near 7,650 into Q3 2026: the Warsh-hold case
S&P 500 forecast: the index stays capped near 7,650 into Q3 2026 as Warsh's hawkish Fed and a 22x forward P/E remove the rate tailwind. Base 7,300, bear 6,800.
WTI to $72 by Q3 2026: the Hormuz premium-unwind case
WTI crude to $72 by Q3 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium unwinds into a 2026 supply surplus — base, bull and bear cases, with disconfirmation.
GBP/USD to 1.31 by Q3 2026: the dollar-asymmetry case
GBP/USD to 1.31 by Q3 2026: a firmer dollar caps cable as US CPI at 4.2% tops the UK's 2.8%. Base, bull and bear targets, levels, and what breaks the call.
Copper to $12,500 by Q3 2026: the dollar-versus-deficit tug of war
Copper market call: a base case to $12,500/tonne by Q3 2026 as a hawkish-Fed dollar caps the metal, against a structural deficit and US tariff stockpiling bid.
Silver to $78 by Q3 2026: the post-correction deficit case
Silver to $78 by Q3 2026 base case ($92 bull, $54 bear): a sixth straight supply deficit and a gold/silver ratio near 65 set up catch-up as gold holds.
USD/JPY capped near 162 into Q3 2026: the intervention-ceiling case
USD/JPY sits near 160.30 after the BOJ's hike to 1% and the Fed's hawkish hold. Why a wide rate gap keeps it bid but the MoF intervention line caps it into Q3 2026.
USD/CAD to 1.42 by Q3 2026: the Fed-hold rate-gap case
USD/CAD to 1.42 by Q3 2026: the Street's loonie-recovery call assumed Fed cuts, but the June 17 Warsh dot plot kept the rate gap wide. The base, bull and bear cases.
DXY to 102 by Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-hold case
The US Dollar Index targets 102 by Q3 2026 as the Warsh-led Fed holds and 2026 rate cuts get priced out. Base, bull and bear cases, with disconfirmation triggers.
Gold to $4,800 by Q3 2026: the central-bank-buying floor
Gold (XAU/USD) targets $4,800/oz by Q3 2026 as relentless central-bank buying floors the market against a hawkish Warsh Fed and elevated real yields.
EUR/USD stays capped near 1.16 as Warsh delays the 1.22 call
EUR/USD holds a 1.15-1.18 range into Q3 2026 as the Warsh-led Fed prices out 2026 cuts, keeping the rate gap wide and deferring the 1.22-1.25 year-end consensus.
US 30-year yield to 5.20% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case
The US 30-year Treasury yield, at 4.97%, grinds toward 5.20% by Q3 2026 on sticky 3.8% inflation, a rebuilding term premium and a hawkish Warsh Fed.
AUD/USD to 0.74 by Q3 2026: the RBA hawkish-hold case
AUD/USD targets 0.74 by Q3 2026 as the RBA holds at 4.35% while the Fed eases, widening the yield gap the commodity-linked Aussie tracks. Base, bull, bear.
WTI to $83 by Q3 2026: the Strait of Hormuz reopening case
WTI crude at $80 targets $83 by Q3 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with record-low inventories cushioning the fall. Base, bull and bear cases.
