EUR/USD stays capped near 1.16 as Warsh delays the 1.22 call
EUR/USD holds a 1.15-1.18 range into Q3 2026 as the Warsh-led Fed prices out 2026 cuts, keeping the rate gap wide and deferring the 1.22-1.25 year-end consensus.
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June 2026
US 30-year yield to 5.20% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case
The US 30-year Treasury yield, at 4.97%, grinds toward 5.20% by Q3 2026 on sticky 3.8% inflation, a rebuilding term premium and a hawkish Warsh Fed.
AUD/USD to 0.74 by Q3 2026: the RBA hawkish-hold case
AUD/USD targets 0.74 by Q3 2026 as the RBA holds at 4.35% while the Fed eases, widening the yield gap the commodity-linked Aussie tracks. Base, bull, bear.
WTI to $83 by Q3 2026: the Strait of Hormuz reopening case
WTI crude at $80 targets $83 by Q3 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with record-low inventories cushioning the fall. Base, bull and bear cases.
Tesla to $475 by year-end 2026: the SpaceX-merger case
Tesla trades near $392 after SpaceX's $1.77tn listing. Bull, base and bear targets for TSLA into year-end — and why the merger optionality now has a price.
Nasdaq 100 to 31,500 by Q3 2026: the Warsh-repricing case
The Nasdaq 100's 4.77% pre-FOMC drop is an uncertainty discount, not an AI repricing. Why Warsh's first Fed meeting opens the path to 31,500 by Q3 2026.
GBP/USD to 1.40 by year-end 2026: the BOE-lag case
GBP/USD to 1.40 by year-end 2026: the Fed cuts faster than a divided BOE, compressing the rate gap in sterling's favour. Targets, levels and triggers.
Copper to $14,500 by year-end 2026: the supply-shock case
Copper price forecast: a 640,000-ton deficit and a mid-year US tariff decision put LME copper at $14,500 by year-end 2026 — with $12,500 the bear floor.
Silver to $80 by Q3 2026: the ratio-compression case
Silver to $80 by Q3 2026 base case: the gold-silver ratio compression and sixth straight structural deficit, weighed against JPMorgan's froth warning.
Nvidia to $280 by year-end 2026: the post-selloff value case
Nvidia fell 6.2% to $205.10 in the June 5 chip rout, but Wall Street targets $280–$350. The base-case math for a re-rating, and where the bet breaks.
EUR/USD to 1.20 by year-end 2026: the dollar-overvaluation case
EUR/USD near 1.167 is capped by a firm dollar, but the base case sees 1.20 by year-end as the Fed converges toward a neutral ECB. Bull 1.25, bear 1.13.
S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q3 2026: the no-cuts repricing case
The S&P 500 fell 2.6% to 7,383.74 after a hot jobs print. Base case 7,000 by Q3 as the Fed-cut path reprices toward zero. Bull 7,800, bear 6,600.
USD/JPY to 153 by Q3 2026: the BOJ-Fed carry-squeeze case
USD/JPY sits at 159, overbought, as the BOJ hikes toward 1.0% and the Fed holds. Base case 153 by Q3 2026, bull 164, bear 147 on a carry unwind.
NZD/USD to 0.62 by Q3 2026: the hawkish-RBNZ and Fed-cut case
NZD/USD targets 0.62 by Q3 2026 as the RBNZ signals hikes while the Fed is priced to cut — a rare central-bank divergence reshaping the kiwi.
USD/CHF to 0.76 by Q3 2026: the Fed-SNB gap and haven case
USD/CHF targets 0.76 by Q3 2026 as the Fed-SNB rate gap closes and safe-haven demand lifts the franc, with SNB intervention the main risk to the call.
Gold to $5,000 by Q3 2026: the central-bank demand case
Gold sits near $4,600 after a sharp 2026 correction. Why $5,000 by Q3 is the base case — central-bank demand vs real yields, with four invalidation triggers.
WTI to $72 by Q3 2026: the Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ unwind case
WTI crude targets $72 by Q3 2026 as the US-Iran ceasefire reopens the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ unwinds cuts into a 2.3m bpd surplus. Base, bull, bear cases.
May 2026
Platinum to $2,300 by Q3 2026: the structural-deficit case
Platinum near $1,950/oz targets $2,300 by Q3 2026 on a fourth straight WPIC deficit and four-month-low stocks — plus the signals that would break the call.
US 10-year yield to 4.10% as the Iran inflation premium fades
The US 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.44% after a 4.70% May high, eases to a base-case 4.10% by the September FOMC as the Iran-war inflation premium unwinds.
AUD/USD to 0.73 by year-end 2026: the RBA-Fed gap case
AUD/USD to 0.73 by year-end 2026 (bull 0.76, bear 0.68): the RBA holds at 4.35% while the Fed eases, with firmer terms of trade - gated by China demand.
