GBP/USD to 1.30 by year-end 2026: the BOE-cut and US-growth case
Base case GBP/USD 1.3000 by Dec 31 2026 on a 75bp BOE cut path against a Fed that holds; bull 1.4000, bear 1.2500. Four signals that break the call.
Desk
Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
285 stories since 2018 · page 9 of 15
May 2026
Base case GBP/USD 1.3000 by Dec 31 2026 on a 75bp BOE cut path against a Fed that holds; bull 1.4000, bear 1.2500. Four signals that break the call.
COMEX copper to $7.00/lb by Dec 31, 2026 base case: JPM's 330k-tonne deficit, COMEX tariff arbitrage stocks above 503k tonnes, and a grid-and-AI demand pulse.
S&P 500 targets 7,800 by year-end 2026 from 7,473 on AI capex, Fed cuts to 3.00-3.25%, and broadening earnings — bull 8,200, bear 6,800.
Silver targets $95 by Q3 2026 as the gold-to-silver ratio compresses from 59 toward 50 on Fed easing and gold's $5,000 path — base, bull, and bear cases laid out.
EUR/USD targets 1.20 by Q3 2026 as the Fed cuts toward 3.00%-3.25% and the ECB weighs a June 11 hike, compressing the transatlantic rate differential.
USD/JPY at 159 with the Fed-BOJ differential at ~325 bp. The base case to 152 by year-end rests on Fed cuts, BOJ hikes, and 4–6 yen of compression-driven strengthening.
Gold to $5,000/oz by year-end 2026 in the base case — the September FOMC dot-plot reset and 60-tonne-per-month central-bank buying remain the load-bearing catalysts.
WTI base case $85/bbl by July 31 2026 from $102.27 spot. Iran framework + UAE-OPEC exit compress geopolitical premium; Goldman cuts Q2 to $87.
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