OMXS30 fades to 3,162.78 under the Riksbank rate path

OMX Stockholm 30 (OMXS30) reaches 3,162.78 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, 3,306.18 in the bull case and 3,148.54 in the bear case, if Sveriges Riksbank keeps a 2026 rate increase in the path published that day.

The latest official close is 3,225.43, the October 26, 2026 session on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm 30 overview, 49.73 points and 1.57 per cent above the October 23 close of 3,175.70. The September 24 decision left the policy rate at 1.75 per cent and the fourth-quarter average at 1.85 per cent. Levels below come from the Nasdaq history file and the Riksbank calendar.

Key Levels:

• OMXS30: 3,225.43 on October 26, 2026 — Nasdaq OMX Stockholm 30 overview, net change +49.73
• Base case target: 3,162.78 by November 4, 2026 — October 22 close on the Nasdaq history file
• Bull case target: 3,306.18 if the November 4 update drops the near-term increase — October 6 high
• Bear case target: 3,148.54 if the update lifts the path again — October 23 session low
• Major support: 3,148.54 — October 23 low on the Nasdaq history file
• Major resistance: 3,290.36 — October 19 high, last high before the October 22 break
• Invalidation level: a daily close above 3,290.36 — the late-October lower high is retraced and the fade ends

How the October 26 OMXS30 close was taken

The spot is the last value on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm 30 overview, stamped October 26, 2026, at 3,225.43, up 49.73 points and 1.57 per cent. The history file for October 1 through October 26 prints 3,175.70 on October 23, and 3,175.70 plus 49.73 equals that last value, so earlier sessions come from the file. It contained no October 27 value on the morning of October 27. OMXS30 is a modified free-float basket of 30 names. Rate figures come from the September 24 press release and the monetary-policy page.

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What the October range and the September path show

On that October file the highest high is 3,306.18 on October 6, the lowest low is 3,148.54 on October 23, and the lowest close is 3,162.78 on October 22.

Sources: Nasdaq OMXS30 history file, October 1–26, 2026; Riksbank press release, September 24, 2026; Riksbank monetary-policy page. Window: October 1–26, 2026 for the index, and the September 24 forecast vintage.

The OMX Stockholm 30 base case is a cash close of 3,162.78 on November 4, 2026, with a bull case of 3,306.18 and a bear case of 3,148.54. Spot is 3,225.43, the last value on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm 30 overview for the October 26, 2026 session, up 49.73 points and 1.57 per cent from the October 23 close of 3,175.70 on the Nasdaq history file. The session high matched the close at 3,225.43 and the session low was 3,178.73. The base-case level is the October 22 close, the lowest close on that file between October 1 and October 26, in view if the November 4 update keeps a rate increase inside 2026. The September 24 decision left the policy rate at 1.75 per cent and the fourth-quarter average at 1.85 per cent. A daily close above 3,290.36, the October 19 high on the same file, ends the base case.

"I said that it may be reasonable to raise the policy rate as early as in November. I also considered the forecast for next year, which indicates further increases, to be reasonable yet associated with considerable uncertainty."

— Erik Thedéen, governor, Sveriges Riksbank (Sveriges Riksbank, October 8, 2026)

Why 3,162.78 is the base case into the update

The September 24 press release assesses that rate increases begin this year if the outlook stays as it was, and by more than in the June forecast. The fourth-quarter average of 1.85 per cent sits 10 basis points above the 1.75 per cent rate in force since September 30, and the first-quarter 2027 average was lifted 18 basis points, to 2.07 per cent. That gap is why a give-back towards 3,162.78 lines up with the path already published.

The release also said the krona had continued to weaken, beside the euro-krona rate path, sterling against the krona and the Norwegian krone against the krona. CPIF at 1.5 per cent sits 0.5 percentage points under the 2 per cent target and September was a hold, so a wait on November 4 points at 3,306.18, beside the Swiss Market Index hold case.

Where the quarterly average fails to pin the meeting

An average of 1.85 per cent puts the path above 1.75 per cent inside the quarter and leaves the increase in November or in December. The Riksbank calendar lists the meeting on November 3, publication of the decision and the Monetary Policy Update on November 4 at 09:30, and a rate that applies from November 11. It also lists December 15 for the next meeting and December 16 for the report, applying from December 23. A November hold that still promises an increase later in 2026 would make 3,162.78 the wrong destination. OMXS30 weights 30 names on a modified free float, so one heavy name can dominate the window, and constituent weights sit outside the history file. Thedéen’s uncertainty about further increases next year is why the bull case of 3,306.18 stays beside the fade.

"Furthermore, leading indicators have continued to rise, which makes me relatively optimistic about the growth outlook."

— Per Jansson, deputy governor, Sveriges Riksbank (Sveriges Riksbank, October 22, 2026)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 3,162.78 by the November 4 cash close ends if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily OMXS30 close above 3,290.36 on any session from October 27 through November 4. That October 19 high would retrace the late-October downswing and the fade would be over.
• A November 4 release that leaves the policy rate at 1.75 per cent and prints a fourth-quarter average of 1.75 per cent or lower. The 10-basis-point gap versus the September path would be gone.
• A November 4 cash close above 3,306.18, the October 6 high and the top of the October file. The base case would have missed the session it named.
• A November 4 path with a first-quarter 2027 average of 1.89 per cent or lower. That restores the June figure and removes the 18-basis-point revision the fade uses.

What is on the calendar before the cash close

November 3 is the meeting at 09:00, and November 4 is the 09:30 publication of the decision and the Monetary Policy Update, then the 11:00 press conference at Brunkebergstorg. The rate applies from November 11, and the November 10 minutes sit after the horizon. From 3,225.43 the levels in between are 3,178.73, then 3,162.78 and 3,148.54 underneath, and 3,290.36 above.

TL;DR

OMXS30 is called to 3,162.78 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, 3,306.18 in the bull case and 3,148.54 in the bear case. The October 26 Nasdaq overview close was 3,225.43, up 49.73 points from 3,175.70. The September 24 release left the policy rate at 1.75 per cent and a fourth-quarter average of 1.85 per cent, 10 basis points higher. Thedéen has said a November increase may be reasonable. A daily close above 3,290.36, the October 19 high, ends the base case.

FAQ

What is the OMXS30 base case into the November update?

The base case is an OMXS30 cash close of 3,162.78 on November 4, 2026, the October 22 close on the Nasdaq history file. The bull case is 3,306.18 if the near-term increase is dropped, and the bear case is 3,148.54 if the path is lifted. From the October 26 close of 3,225.43 the gap down to the base case is 62.65 points.

Which session supplies the OMXS30 spot level?

Spot is the October 26, 2026 session on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm 30 overview: last 3,225.43, high 3,225.43, low 3,178.73 and a net change of +49.73, or 1.57 per cent. The history file shows October 23 at 3,175.70, and the latest row read on the morning of October 27 is still October 26.

What policy rate and path did the September decision set?

On September 24, 2026 the Executive Board left the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, effective September 30. The fourth-quarter average is 1.85 per cent, against 1.82 per cent in June, and the first-quarter 2027 average is 2.07 per cent, against 1.89 per cent. September CPIF was 1.5 per cent after 0.7 per cent in August. The next decision is published on November 4, on the Riksbank calendar.

Which prints would end the base case before the horizon?

Any one of four prints ends the base case on the way to November 4: a daily close above 3,290.36, a fourth-quarter average cut to 1.75 per cent or lower, a cash close that day above 3,306.18, or a first-quarter 2027 average of 1.89 per cent or lower. The November 10 minutes fall after that horizon and sit outside the test.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.