USD/ARS to 1,552.30 if the reference crawl holds

USD/ARS reaches 1,552.30 by November 11, 2026 in the base case, 1,566.52 in the bull case and 1,514.57 in the bear case. The spot is the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) Comunicación A 3500 fix of 1,544.6507 on November 2, 2026, up 1.42% from 1,523.0868 on October 2 in the bank's workbook. The base case carries that pace across the seven weekday fixes before the Monthly Monetary Report, and a daily fix below 1,537.35 retires it.

Key Levels:

• Asset: USD/ARS at 1,544.6507 — BCRA Comunicación A 3500, November 2, 2026
• Base case target: 1,552.30 by November 11, 2026 — 1.42% over 20 weekday intervals, carried across seven further weekday fixes
• Bull case target: 1,566.52 — that full 1.42% squeezed into the same short window
• Bear case target: 1,514.57 — October 16 reference of 1,514.5655, rounded to two decimals
• Major support: 1,537.35 — October 30 reference of 1,537.3487
• Major resistance: 1,552.30 — the base-case fix, above every row through November 2
• Invalidation level: a daily fix below 1,537.35 — back through the October 30 reference

Methodology

The spot is the wholesale reference rate in Comunicación A 3500, from the BCRA workbook com3500.xls on the reference-rate page, read on November 3, 2026. The last daily row is November 2. The horizon is the next monetary item on the publication calendar, the Informe Monetario Mensual on November 11, 2026. The pace divides the October 2 to November 2 change by 20 weekday intervals and applies it to the seven weekdays from November 3 through November 11. Retail city rates and the parallel quotation stay outside the target arithmetic.

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The Data

The USD/ARS base case is a Comunicación A 3500 wholesale reference fix of 1,552.30 on November 11, 2026. The spot is 1,544.6507, the last row in the Banco Central de la República Argentina workbook for that rate, dated November 2, 2026. The October 2 row is 1,523.0868, so the fix rose 1.42% across the 20 weekday intervals between those dates, about 0.0708% a session. Seven weekday fixes fall after November 2 and on or before November 11, the day the bank's publication calendar assigns to the Monthly Monetary Report. Carrying the same per-session pace across those seven fixes produces 1,552.30. The bull case of 1,566.52 repeats the whole 1.42% inside that shorter window. The bear case of 1,514.57 is the October 16 reference of 1,514.5655. A daily fix under 1,537.35, the October 30 reference of 1,537.3487, retires the base case.

Sources: BCRA Comunicación A 3500 workbook, read November 3, 2026; Informe de Política Monetaria, September 2026, presented October 29, 2026. Window: January 2 to November 2, 2026 for the fix, and the third quarter of 2026 for the macro readings.

"El régimen de flotación cambiaria funcionó nuevamente como amortiguador, facilitando el ajuste de precios relativos sin disrupciones en los mercados financieros domésticos. El tipo de cambio nominal se mantuvo relativamente estable durante el trimestre. La consistencia de las políticas fiscal, monetaria y cambiaria sigue siendo la base de esa estabilidad."

— Santiago Bausili, president, Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA press conference, October 29, 2026)

The Mechanism

The mechanism behind the 1,552.30 base case is a drift in the official fix, inside a float the BCRA has described as orderly. In the September 2026 monetary-policy report, presented on October 29, the bank says it bought USD 3,400 million from the private sector in the third quarter and more than USD 15,800 million in the year to date, without generating pressure on the nominal exchange rate. Private foreign-currency deposits reached USD 42,700 million, a stock the report calls a historical maximum, and reserves rose by about USD 9,400 million through October 26. Inflation averaged 1.9% a month in the third quarter, while the reference rate rose 1.42% between October 2 and November 2. A crawl below that monthly inflation rate is a small real appreciation, extended here for seven sessions. The bull case of 1,566.52 requires that full monthly percentage before November 11.

The anchor is the quantity of money, with the interest rate free to move. Real base money grew 1.4% a month in the third quarter, to 4.0% of gross domestic product. The September REM put December 2026 inflation at 30.0% year on year. The November 5 REM can still reprice the expected official rate. Other dollar fixes on this desk are tied to a named central-bank date in the same way: the zloty path after the National Bank of Poland hold, the sol path built from the official reference, and the Chilean peso hold case.

What the Model Misses

The session model remembers only the last 20 weekday intervals. It sets aside the April 13 fix of 1,362.8139, so a repeat of that peso rally before November 11 sits outside the base case by construction. One weekday holiday would shorten the path by about 0.07%. Bausili could call the third-quarter nominal rate relatively stable because the rise from 1,487.7690 on July 1 to October 2 was 2.37% over three months, slower than the 1.42% in the latest month. Dearer beef, a higher gas tariff and the Federal Reserve range of 3.75%–4.00% can still lift dollar demand enough to gap the fix.

"El objetivo es mostrar cómo interactúan los shocks adversos con el ritmo de normalización de los principales agregados monetarios, que constituyen la base del marco mediante el cual el BCRA cumple su mandato principal —y próximamente único— de preservar el valor de la moneda."

— Vladimir Werning, vice president, Banco Central de la República Argentina (speech to the CNV-IOSCO World Investor Week, October 5, 2026)

Disconfirmation

The base case of 1,552.30 on November 11 breaks if any one of these four observations lands:

• A daily Comunicación A 3500 fix below 1,537.35. That is the October 30 reference, under the November 2 print of 1,544.6507. A fix back through it means the 20-session pace has reversed.
• A daily fix at or above 1,566.52 before November 11. That print is the bull case. The base case is a controlled crawl, and a faster print means the pace assumption failed on the upside.
• The November 5 REM median for the official rate sits at or below 1,537.35 on a November horizon. A median below the October 30 fix would mark the drift as finished.
• A BCRA communication before November 11 that replaces the float with a fixed crawl or a hard ceiling. The arithmetic assumes the regime Bausili described on October 29. A new rule would make the 0.0708% session pace the wrong instrument.

What to Watch Next

On November 5 the calendar schedules the market-expectations survey, which can reprice the official rate. On November 11 the Monthly Monetary Report is due, and that date is the base-case horizon. The November 13 statistical bulletin falls outside it.

Each weekday Comunicación A 3500 fix is the live score. Small gains from 1,544.6507 toward 1,552.30 validate the base case, while a jump through 1,566.52 or a fix back through 1,537.35 ends it early. The monetary conference Werning set for November 16 and November 17 sits after the horizon. For a rate run inside a published band, see the Hong Kong dollar inside its convertibility band.

TL;DR

USD/ARS reaches 1,552.30 by November 11, 2026 in the base case, 1,566.52 if the recent monthly rise is compressed into the window, and 1,514.57 if the fix returns to the October 16 reference. The spot is 1,544.6507, the Comunicación A 3500 fixing of November 2, up 1.42% from 1,523.0868 on October 2 in the BCRA workbook. That per-session pace is the base case. The September report records third-quarter inflation of 1.9% a month. A daily fix below 1,537.35 retires the base case, as does a print at or above 1,566.52.

FAQ

What is the USD/ARS base case into the November monetary report?

The base case is a Comunicación A 3500 reference fix of 1,552.30 on November 11, 2026. It takes the rise from 1,523.0868 on October 2 to 1,544.6507 on November 2, a gain of 1.42% over 20 weekday intervals, and applies that pace to the seven weekdays before the Monthly Monetary Report. The bull case of 1,566.52 repeats the full monthly percentage inside the shorter window, and the bear case of 1,514.57 returns the fix to the October 16 reference.

Where does the 1,544.6507 spot come from?

The spot is the wholesale reference rate under Comunicación A 3500, published by the Banco Central de la República Argentina in its historical workbook. The last daily row, read on November 3, 2026, is the November 2 fixing of 1,544.6507 pesos per dollar. It is the official wholesale reference, distinct from the retail city rate and from any parallel quotation. The November 3 fixing was still absent, so the seven weekdays are counted after November 2.

Why is the horizon November 11 rather than a rate decision?

The BCRA publication calendar for 2026 lists reports, surveys and statistical bulletins. A board vote on the policy rate is absent from the remaining dates. The next monetary publication after November 3 is the Informe Monetario Mensual on November 11, which is the date the base case is judged against. The market-expectations survey on November 5 can shift the expected official rate inside the window, and it is a survey rather than the horizon itself.

What print retires the base case?

A daily Comunicación A 3500 fix below 1,537.35 retires it. That level is the October 30 reference, the last print before the rise to 1,544.6507, and a return through it means the 20-session pace has reversed. A daily fix at or above 1,566.52 before November 11 also retires the base case, because that print is the bull case and the crawl was then faster than the session model allowed. Either observation is enough on its own.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.