USD/HUF to 325.91 by 20 October 2026 if the MNB holds

USD/HUF reaches 325.91 by October 20, 2026 in the base case, 327.98 in the bull case and 319.89 in the bear case. The path is a return to the October mean of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank's official dollar fixing if the Monetary Council again leaves the base rate at 5.50 percent.

The official dollar fixing has moved since that September hold. It was 315.70 on September 22, 2026 and 323.07 on October 16, 2026, a rise of 7.37 forint, or 2.33 percent, in the Magyar Nemzeti Bank series. The base case does not ask for a new trend. It asks for the October 20 fixing to meet the mean of the 12 official dollar rates published from October 1 through October 16. A signal listed below retires that path.

Key Levels:

• USD/HUF: 323.07 forint per dollar — MNB official rate, October 16, 2026
• Base case target: 325.91 by October 20, 2026 — mean of 12 October fixings (unrounded 325.9133)
• Bull case target: 327.98 — October 5, 2026 official high
• Bear case target: 319.89 — September 25, 2026 official fixing
• Major support: 319.89 — 3.18 forint under the latest rate
• Major resistance: 327.98 — month's high on October 5, 2026
• Invalidation level: official rate below 315.70 on October 20 — the September 22 fixing

How this October 20 call is scored

The scoreboard is the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) official dollar rate from January 5 to October 16, 2026. Percentiles use 76 two-session changes from July 1, read at the floor of p times 75 on the absolute moves. The median is 1.79 forint, the 75th percentile 3.18 and the 90th 4.41. The largest two-session move is 6.57 forint, from September 2 to September 4, and the largest one-session move is 4.85 forint, from July 13 to July 14. This desk could not verify whether the October 20 fixing precedes the vote. The external comparator is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement of September 16, 2026.

Related:USD/PEN to 3.3500 by November 12: the surplus case

The dollar fixing has cheapened the forint since the hold

Sources: MNB official daily rates through October 16, 2026; September 22 press release (base rate 5.50 percent, August inflation 1.3 percent, core 2 percent); October 10 account of Governor Mihály Varga (September inflation 1.6 percent); FOMC statement of September 16, 2026. The 150 basis point gap is 5.50 minus 4.00.

USD/HUF is the official forint price of one US dollar in the Magyar Nemzeti Bank's daily fixing, not a euro cross and not a broker mid-quote. On October 16, 2026 that fixing was 323.07. The base case for October 20, 2026 is 325.91, the mean of the 12 official dollar rates from October 1 through October 16, at the MNB's two-decimal place. The unrounded mean is 325.9133. The step from 323.07 to 325.91 is 2.84 forint. On the 76 two-session changes from July 1, 2026 to October 16, 2026, the median absolute move is 1.79 forint and the 75th percentile is 3.18 forint, so 2.84 forint sits inside the recent range. The bull case, 327.98, is the October 5 high, 4.91 forint above the latest fixing. The bear case, 319.89, is the September 25 fixing, 3.18 forint below it.

"And, as I said at the policy symposium in Jackson Hole, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the Committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation."

— Chairman Warsh, Chairman, Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve)

A second hold does not put 315.70 back in two sessions

The September 22 press release held the base rate at 5.50 percent. The minutes, out at 2 p.m. on October 7, record one option and say the exchange rate "had remained in the stronger range observed in recent months and continued to have a disinflationary effect." They name October 20, 2026 as the next policy meeting, matching the 2026 calendar.

The mechanism is a hold. On September 22, 2026 the Monetary Council left the base rate at 5.50 percent, the overnight deposit rate at 4.50 percent and the overnight collateralised loan rate at 6.50 percent. The minutes say keeping 5.50 percent was the only option, and all 11 members voted for it. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range on September 16, 2026 by 25 basis points, to 3.75–4 percent, by a 12–0 vote. Set against the top of that range, the MNB base rate is 150 basis points higher. That gap is between two administered rates, not a traded yield spread. From the September 22 fixing of 315.70 to the October 16 fixing of 323.07, the official rate rose 7.37 forint, or 2.33 percent. Another hold on October 20 does not restore the September gap. The base case is a 2.84 forint bounce to the October mean of 325.91, not a return to 315.70 in two sessions.

Low inflation is the objection. August inflation was 1.3 percent. The target review sets 2.5 percent from January 1, 2028, with a band of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The October 8 note calls that a cut from 3 percent, so the lower edge now is 2 percent. Both 1.3 and 1.6 sit under that edge, which is the case for 319.89.

What a two-session mean cannot see

From September 22 to September 24 the official dollar rate rose 6.10 forint, from 315.70 to 321.80. The same rise off 323.07 lands at 329.17, through 325.91 and 327.98. The base case is smaller than that post-decision move, and it fails if Tuesday repeats it.

The September forecast still in force is GDP growth of 1.7 percent in the second quarter, 1.8 percent in 2026, 2.9 percent in 2027 and 2.8 percent in 2028, with inflation at 1.8 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2027.

Other notes on the forex desk use separate anchors: the Swiss franc into late October, the peso ahead of October 22 and the krona into early November.

"Adopting the euro may benefit Hungary, but more important than the date is that the Hungarian economy is adequately prepared to introduce the common currency."

— Mihály Varga, Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

That October 10 account puts September inflation at 1.6 percent and still asks for cautious policy. It is the case for holding near 323.07, not for a bounce to the October mean.

What would invalidate this call

The base case of 325.91 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• October 20 official rate below 315.70. The drop from 323.07 is 7.37 forint, larger than the 6.57 forint move from September 2 to September 4.
• October 20 official rate above 327.98. The gap from 323.07 is 4.91 forint, past the 4.41 forint 90th percentile, so the mean was too low a base.
• The base rate is not left at 5.50 percent. The history shows 5.50 percent as of August 26, 2026, and September left it there. A cut or a hike is another reaction function.
• October 19 official rate at or below 319.89. Reaching 325.91 the next day would take at least 6.02 forint. The largest one-session move since July 1 was 4.85 forint, on July 14.

What to watch before Tuesday's fixing

October 19 and October 20 are the last official dollar rates inside the horizon, on the MNB exchange-rate page. The base case needs October 20 at 325.91 and October 19 above 319.89. Tuesday's decision is the hold test. No Inflation Report is scheduled.

The FOMC meets on October 27–28, after this horizon, per the Federal Reserve calendar. The rate still in force is the September 16 range of 3.75 to 4 percent. Minutes of the October 20 meeting are due at 2 p.m. on November 4, 2026. The next policy date is November 17.

TL;DR

USD/HUF is called at 325.91 on the October 20, 2026 official fixing if the Magyar Nemzeti Bank again holds the base rate at 5.50 percent. That level is the two-decimal mean of the 12 official dollar rates from October 1 through October 16. The latest fixing, 323.07 on October 16, sits 2.84 forint below it. Since the September 22 fixing of 315.70 the same series is up 7.37 forint. The bull case is the October 5 high of 327.98 and the bear case is the September 25 fixing of 319.89. A print below 315.70 breaks the call.

FAQ

What is the USD/HUF call for October 20, 2026?

The base case is an MNB dollar fixing of 325.91 on October 20, 2026, if the Council again leaves the base rate at 5.50 percent. That figure is the two-decimal mean of the 12 official dollar rates from October 1 through October 16. The bull case is 327.98, the October 5 high. The bear case is 319.89, the September 25 fixing. The latest official rate, on October 16, was 323.07.

What did the Council decide on September 22?

It held the base rate at 5.50 percent. The overnight deposit rate stayed at 4.50 percent and the overnight collateralised loan rate stayed at 6.50 percent. Minutes published at 2 p.m. on October 7, 2026 say that was the only option and that all 11 members voted for it. The next policy meeting is October 20, 2026. Minutes of that meeting are due at 2 p.m. on November 4, 2026.

Where does 325.91 come from?

It is the mean of the 12 official MNB dollar rates from October 1 through October 16, 2026, not a past fixing. Those rates sum to 3,910.96. Divided by 12, the mean is 325.9133, which prints as 325.91. The October 16 rate of 323.07 is 2.84 forint below that figure. The high in the same 12 rates is 327.98, set on October 5.

What would prove the call wrong?

An October 20 official rate below 315.70 breaks it. That is a 7.37 forint drop from 323.07, larger than the 6.57 forint move from September 2 to September 4. A print above 327.98 also breaks the base case, as does a base rate other than 5.50 percent. An October 19 rate at or below 319.89 would put 325.91 outside the largest recent one-day move.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.