EUR/TRY back to 55.3021 by the October 22 CBRT hold

EUR/TRY reaches 55.3021 by October 22, 2026 in the base case, 56.4128 in the bull case and 55.0538 in the bear case. The base case is a return to the October average of the Bank's euro forex selling rate if the one-week repo stays at 37 percent.

Bulletin 2026/198, dated October 20, 2026, set the euro forex selling rate at 55.6191 and the buying rate at 55.5191. The selling rate is 0.3170 lira above the 55.3021 average of the 14 October bulletins and 0.1332 lira below 55.7523, the September 23 high of the last 20 bulletins. An October 22 hold maps to that average rather than a new high.

Key Levels:

• EUR/TRY: 55.6191 selling rate, bulletin 2026/198, October 20, 2026 — Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT); buying rate 55.5191
• Base case target: 55.3021 by October 22, 2026 — mean of 14 October selling rates
• Bull case target: 56.4128 — September 10 rate if the repo is cut
• Bear case target: 55.0538 — October 8 rate if policy tightens
• Major support: 55.0538 — low of the last 20 bulletins
• Major resistance: 56.4128 — September 10 high
• Invalidation level: October 22 rate above 55.7523 — September 23 high

How this EUR/TRY call was built

The spot is the euro forex selling rate on bulletin 2026/198, dated October 20, 2026. Opened on October 21, that file was still the latest. The base case, 55.3021, is the mean of the 14 October selling rates, October 1 through October 20, rounded half-up to four decimals. The policy rate is the latest one-week repo row, 37.00 percent on January 23, 2026, held on September 10. Inflation comes from the Bank's table of Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) rates. The horizon is the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) date on the Bank's calendar, October 22, 2026. No futures book was opened.

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What the euro selling rate has done since the September hold

The euro indicative rate is the CBRT daily bulletin price for one euro in lira, a forex buying rate and a forex selling rate. On October 20, 2026, bulletin 2026/198, the selling rate was 55.6191 and the buying rate was 55.5191. That selling rate is the spot in this call. The 14 October bulletins, October 1 through October 20, average 55.3021 on the selling rate. Bulletins 2026/179 through 2026/198, September 23 to October 20, have no missing number. The high is 55.7523 on September 23 and the low is 55.0538 on October 8. From 56.4128 on September 10, October 20 is lower by 0.7937 lira, or 1.41 percent. Against 50.3839 on January 2, 2026, it is higher by 5.2352 lira, or 10.39 percent. The base case is an October 22 selling rate of 55.3021.

Sources: CBRT bulletins, the January 2 file, the September 10 file, the October 8 file and the October 20 file. Window: January 2, 2026 to October 20, 2026.

From 56.4128 on September 10 the selling rate fell to 55.0538 on October 8, then bounced to 55.6191. The largest one-bulletin fall, 0.2605 lira, means the 0.3170 gap needs October 21 and October 22.

On September 10, 2026, the MPC kept the one-week repo at 37 percent. The one-week repo table stops at 37.00 percent on January 23, 2026. The next decision on the Bank's calendar is October 22, 2026.

"During this period, in which inflation expectations and pricing behavior remain important, we will maintain our tight stance and continue to use all our tools decisively to achieve our primary objective of price stability."

— Fatih Karahan, Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (Inflation Report 2026-III briefing, August 13, 2026)

Why a hold points back towards the October average

EUR/TRY base case is 55.3021, the October average of the euro forex selling rate, if the October 22 bulletin follows a hold in the one-week repo at 37 percent. Spot is 55.6191 on bulletin 2026/198, dated October 20, 2026. Since September 10 the selling rate has fallen from 56.4128 to 55.6191, a decline of 0.7937 lira, or 1.41 percent, the exchange-rate channel in that decision. September consumer prices, republished by the Bank from TURKSTAT, were 1.84 percent on the month and 29.73 percent on the year, down from 31.51 percent year on year in August. Subtracting 29.73 from 37 leaves 7.27 percentage points, which the Bank does not publish as a real rate. The call fails if the October 22 selling rate prints above 55.7523, and it also fails if the committee cuts the repo.

The September 10 text keeps the tight stance until price stability, through demand, the exchange rate and expectations, and tightens only after a significant and persistent deterioration. Yaşar Fatih Karahan is the governor. September's 29.73 percent rate is 0.33 percentage points above the August survey's 29.4 percent year-end 2026 expectation.

On August 23, 2026 the Bank resumed one-week repo auctions suspended on March 1, as Industry Spread's August repo-restart note set out. Deposit rates were 44.4 percent in the week ending September 4, down 255 basis points from the week ending July 24. One-month implied volatility was 6.1 percent on September 9, a lira figure, not a EUR/TRY quote.

What a 14-bulletin average cannot see

The average describes October, and it fails if October 22 changes the regime. A 0.3170 lira gap is larger than the 0.2605 lira biggest one-bulletin fall in the last 20 prints, so a hold can leave the rate near 55.6191. August and September both show a 1.84 percent monthly consumer-price change on the Bank's table, a match this note does not explain. A hike, if retail foreign-exchange demand returns, would favour 55.0538 rather than 55.3021.

Selling-rate averages miss liquidity breaks. In November 2021 a broker halted Turkish lira trades in a sharp move, and no figure is taken from that report. If the October 22 statement treats the auction restart as easier policy, 55.3021 is the wrong anchor. The wider book is on the forex desk.

Muhammet Mercan, ING chief economist, wrote on May 14, 2026 that a hike was still possible.

"Accordingly, a rate hike remains a possibility, particularly if pressures on foreign exchange reserves intensify or retail FX demand shows renewed strength."

— Muhammet Mercan, Chief Economist, Turkey, ING (ING Think, May 14, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case, an October 22 selling rate of 55.3021 with the repo still at 37 percent, breaks if any one of these four outcomes appears.

• The October 22 selling rate prints above 55.7523. That September 23 high of bulletins 2026/179 through 2026/198 would mean the stall has become a range break. That is the invalidation.
• The committee cuts the one-week repo below 37 percent. The base case is a hold. A cut makes 56.4128, the bull case, the relevant level.
• The October 22 statement drops the pledge to keep the tight stance until price stability. The September 10 text ties that stance to the exchange rate. Removing it, even with the repo unchanged, is a regime change.
• The October 22 selling rate prints below 55.0538. That October 8 low is the bear case. A print through it means the direction was right and the magnitude was wrong.

What to watch into the October 22 decision

The Bank says MPC decisions are posted the same day at 2.00 pm. October 22, 2026 is the date in the Monetary Policy Committee Decision column. The bulletin after that posting settles the call against 55.3021, 55.7523 and 55.0538. The September 10 decision said the summary follows within five working days. The calendar lists October 30 for the summary and November 12, 2026 for the inflation report, both later than this horizon. Until the new bulletin is out, spot is 55.6191, the base case is 55.3021, and 55.7523 ends the call. The indicative file is the only print that counts.

TL;DR

EUR/TRY reaches 55.3021 by October 22, 2026 in the base case if the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye holds the one-week repo at 37 percent. Spot is 55.6191 on bulletin 2026/198, October 20, 2026, 0.3170 lira above the 14-bulletin October average. September consumer prices, republished from TURKSTAT, were 29.73 percent year on year. The call breaks if the October 22 selling rate prints above 55.7523 or if the committee cuts the repo. The bull case is 56.4128 and the bear case is 55.0538.

FAQ

What is the base-case EUR/TRY level on October 22, 2026?

The base case is 55.3021, the mean of the euro forex selling rate on the 14 October bulletins from October 1 through October 20, rounded half-up to four decimals. Spot on bulletin 2026/198 is 55.6191, a gap of 0.3170 lira. The bull case is 56.4128 and the bear case is 55.0538.

What policy rate does the call assume the committee holds?

The call assumes the one-week repo stays at 37 percent. The committee held that rate on September 10, 2026, with overnight lending at 40 percent and overnight borrowing at 35.5 percent. The latest repo-table row is 37.00 percent on January 23, 2026. A cut below 37 percent invalidates the base case.

Where does the October 22 date come from?

October 22, 2026 is the next date in the Monetary Policy Committee Decision column of the Bank's calendar. That row lists a summary on October 30 and an inflation report on November 12, 2026. Decisions are posted the same day at 2.00 pm, and the next bulletin confirms or kills 55.3021.

Which euro rate would invalidate the call?

An October 22 euro forex selling rate above 55.7523 invalidates the base case. That is the September 23 high of bulletins 2026/179 through 2026/198. Spot at 55.6191 is 0.1332 lira below it. A repo cut below 37 percent also ends the call. A print below 55.0538 fails the base case on size.

Why use the selling rate rather than a market quote?

The selling rate is the price on the Bank's bulletin. On October 20, 2026 it was 55.6191, and the buying rate was 55.5191, a gap of 0.1000 lira. The comparisons use selling rates only: 50.3839, 56.4128, 55.3021 and 55.7523. No dealer quote was opened here. The dollar cross is unused.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.