economy Archives - The Industry Spread

Trade, No Trade? China Cancels US Farm Tour, Shrugs It Off

September 23, 2019 by Michael Moran Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News, Market News - Asia Open Tagged: AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Brexit, ECB, economy, EUR-USD, Fintech, FOMC, Forex, FX trading, GBP-USD, monetary policy, Retail Fx, trading platform, USD/JPY

Summary: The Dollar traded within well-worn ranges with differing FX outcomes. A risk-off stance pervaded at the close of US markets on Friday, pushing Wall Street stocks and US yields lower. A Chinese trade delegation cancelled scheduled visits to farms in the states of Montana and Nebraska, following 2 days of trade talks in Washington. Markets concluded that both protagonists in the trade war were no closer to a comprehensive agreement. A late breaking Bloomberg report said a Chinese official shrugged off the farm tour cancellation saw risk come back a touch. Geopolitics remained shaky after Saudi Arabia warned Iran that any strike would amount to war following last week’s oil field attacks. The US Dollar fell against the Yen (107.70 from 108.05) and Swiss Franc (0.9915 from 0.9932). Against the Offshore Chinese Yuan, the Dollar was initially higher (7.12 against 7.10). The latest news saw USD/CNH fall back to 1.10. The Australian Dollar fell 0.47% to 0.6762 from 6792. It’s smaller cousin, the Kiwi slumped 0.7% to 0.6260 (0.6300), fresh 4-year lows. New Zealand’s RBNZ meets on interest rates this week. The Euro dipped to 1.1015 from 1.1040 while Sterling fell back to 1.2472 (1.2522). Equities were sold at the New York close while futures rose in Sydney. US bond yields dropped. The benchmark US 10-year rate finished at 1.72% (1.78%).
Germany’s Producer Prices fell to -0.5% in August, missing forecasts at 0.0%.
Tokyo markets are closed today in observance of its Autumnal Equinox Day.

Forex Fact. – German PPI Chart – 23 SEPT 2019

USD/JPY – The Dollar slumped at the New York close at 107.52, from 108.05 as risk aversion crept into the markets on Friday. In early Sydney, USD/JPY steadied in early Sydney as Chinese officials shrugged off the US farm tour cancellation, saying it had “no effect” on trade talks.
EUR/USD – The shared currency drifted lower within well established ranges to 1.1015 from 1.1040. Worse than expected German Producer Prices and risk-off from lack of trade talk progress between China and the US weighed on the Euro.
NZD/USD – The Kiwi plunged to overnight and fresh 4-year lows at 0.62549, settling at 0.6265 in early Sydney, and 0.6300 Friday. The RBNZ holds its policy meeting this week (Wednesday) with 25% chance of a rate cut.

On the Lookout: Risk-off, risk-on, and the market’s initial reactions said it all this morning. Bloomberg reported that Chinese Business News reported that Vice Agricultural Minister Han Jun said that their withdrawal from a planned US farm tour visit “had nothing to do with trade talks”. Wall Street stock futures rose on the news, while the Dollar edged back to 107.72 Yen from 107.52. USD/CNH fell back to 7.10 after spiking to 7.12. On Friday the Dollar was changing hands at 7.1030 Offshore Chinese Yuan.

IG – Daily FX USD CNH Chart – 23 Sept 2019

Seems like many of us have experienced this scene from China before. Markets will stay alert, remaining on edge. At the end of the day, the Dollar traded within well-worn ranges with FX subdued.
Today sees Japanese Flash Manufacturing data (despite the Tokyo holiday). Euro area Flash Manufacturing and Service data follow with Germany, France and the Eurozone reports. ECB President Mario Draghi addresses the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels. The UK releases its Conference Board Industrial Orders Expectations (August). US Flash Manufacturing and Services reports round up the day’s data release. FOMC officials Williams and Bullard have speaking engagements.

Trading Perspective: While the Dollar Index (USD/DXY) ended up 0.19% to 98.462 (98.369 Friday), its overall performance was mixed against FX rivals. The US 10-year bond yield dropped 6 basis points to 1.72% (1.78% Friday). Rival note yields were mostly unchanged. This will keep the Dollar’s topside limited despite the market’s general risk-off stance.
The Kiwi was Friday’s biggest mover amongst the majors. NZD/USD plunged to fresh 4-year lows at 0.62549 before recovering to 0.6265 in Sydney. This time it was the Kiwi that dragged the Aussie lower. The RBNZ meets this week with interest rate traders seeing a 25% likelihood of a rate cut. Last week’s Commitment of Traders/ CFTC report saw speculative Kiwi shorts total -NZD 29,790 contracts which is 84% of the year’s highest short contracts. It is in a similar position to where the Aussie was a few months ago. The risk therefore is north for the Kiwi. Particularly if US bond yields continue to slide.

IG – Daily FX NZD USD Chart – 23 Sept 2019

NZD/USD – Having slumped to fresh 4-year lows on the overall bearish sentiment ahead of this week’s RBNZ policy meeting and the market’s general risk aversion, the Kiwi settled at 0.6267, currently. NZD/USD traded to a low at 0.62549 in New York. Immediate support lies at 0.6250 followed by 0.6220. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.6290 and 0.6320. With the speculative market positioned short near yearly highs, prefer to buy dips in a likely 0.6250-0.6300 range.
EUR/USD – The Euro dipped to 1.1019 from1.1040, down 0.3%. The worse-than-forecast drop in German producer prices and overall risk aversion weigh on the shared currency. EUR/USD traded to an overnight low at 1.09962 before climbing to settle at 1.1019, where it currently sits. EUR/USD has immediate support at 1.1000 followed by 1.1080. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1040 and 1.1070 (overnight high at 1.1070). Today sees Euro area PMI’s. ECB outgoing President Mario Draghi address the European Parliament on Economic and Monetary Policy in a speech in Brussels. Look for a likely trading range today of 1.0995-1.1055. Prefer to buy dips.
USD/JPY – With Tokyo out today, expect subdued trading in the Dollar. However Japanese banks operating in Asia will have access to their head-office order books, which can be huge. USD/JPY has immediate resistance at 107.80 followed by 108.10 (overnight high 108.08). Immediate support can be found at 107.50 (overnight low 107.526) followed by 107.20. With US 10-year yields lower and the general risk aversion, look to sell USD/JPY rallies in a likely 107.30-107.80 range.
AUD/USD – The Aussie fell in tandem with the Kiwi, ending down 0.47% at 0.6765 (0.6795). The statement from China’s Agricultural Minister on the cancelled US farm visits saw stock futures and the USD/JPY rally. However, the Aussie didn’t move much, currently sitting at 0.6768 from 0.6765. AUD/USD traded to an overnight low at 0.6760, which is immediate support. The next support level comes in at 0.6730. Immediate resistance lies at 0.6790 followed by 0.6810 (overnight high 0.6809). Look to buy dips in a likely 0.6760-10 range.

Have a good week ahead all, happy trading.

Dollar Ends Mixed, EUR, GBP, JPY Up, AUD, NZD Down

September 20, 2019 by Michael Moran Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News, Market News - Asia Open Tagged: AUD/USD, Brexit, CFTC, ECB, economy, EUR-USD, monetary policy, Retail Fx, Sino-U.S. trade talks, USD/JPY

Summary: The Dollar finished mixed the day after a hawkish Fed rate cut and no policy changes from the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. While the Dollar Index (USD/DXY) often a mirror of the Euro was lower, the Greenback rose against the antipodean currencies. The Euro was up 0.10% to 1.1042 from 1.1028. Sterling soared to fresh 7-week highs (1.2560) after European Commissioner Juncker said a Brexit deal is possible before Oct 31 if alternative arrangements address the backstop objectives. GBP/USD closed at 1.2527, up 0.4%. The US Dollar fell against the Yen to 108.04 from 108.45 after the BOJ kept policy unchanged and US bond yields slipped. Benchmark US 10-year treasury rates were at 1.78% from 1.80%. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY) was 0.19% lower to 98.369 (98.593 yesterday). The Australian Dollar dropped to 0.6792 (0.6829) after Australia’s Unemployment rate shot up to a twelve-month high at 5.3% despite strong Employment growth. Antipodean cousin, the New Zealand Dollar was down 0.28% to 0.6299.

forex factory – Australia Unemployment Rate – 20 SEPT 2019

Wall Street stocks drifted at the New York close to end mildly lower. The OECD downgraded global economic growth to its worst level since the recession brought about by the financial crisis.
Japan’s All Industry Activity Index missed forecasts at 0.2% against 0.4%. US Weekly Unemployment Claims were lower at 208,000, against 210,000 expected. The US Philadelphia Manufacturing Index beat expectations climbing to 12 from 10.9. US Existing Home Sales rose to 5.49 million in August from July’s 5.42 million.

EUR/USD – The Euro maintained its foothold above 1.10, finishing at 1.1040 from 1.1027 yesterday. The shared currency traded in a familiar range between 1.1023 and 1.1073.
USD/JPY – Lower US bond yields and a less positive risk stance by the markets saw the Japanese currency climb against the US Dollar. USD/JPY dipped to 108.04 in New York from 108.45 yesterday. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at -0.10%.

IG AUD USD Chart – 20 SEPT 2019

AUD/USD – Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3% against a forecast of 5.2%, its highest for this year. The Aussie Battle fell to 0.6780 before closing at 0.6792 (0.6830 yesterday). The Australian Business Insider reported that the local market is signalling a 70% chance of an October rate cut.
GBP/USD – Sterling rallied to finish 0.42% at 1.2530 after European Commissioner Jean Claude Junker said that if objectives for the backstop are met through alternative arrangements, the backstop wouldn’t be needed and there could be a Brexit deal before the October deadline. The British Pound got a strong boost from the comments.

On the Lookout: After the other central banks left their interest policies unchanged, FX action was limited to familiar range trading. The Dollar Index, a measure of the Greenback’s value against 6 currencies, mainly the Euro was a touch lower. Against other currencies, the US Dollar was mixed.
Wall Street stocks trimmed early gains following the OECD’s downgrade of the global economy. On the trade front, both China and the US signalled impatience with talks currently at a standstill. The Yen and Swiss Franc rallied.
Fedspeak begins today with FOMC members Williams and Rosengren scheduled to talk at different functions. Williams is speaking at a Swiss National Bank conference in Zurich. Rosengren is due to speak at a credit conference in New York.
Other data released today include Japanese National Core CPI (y/y) and Credit Card Spending. The Euro area sees Germany’s August PPI and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. In the UK, the Bank of England releases is Quarterly Economic Bulletin. Canada’s Headline and Core Retail Sales follow. There are no US data reports due today.

Trading Perspective: Overnight US bond yields were a touch lower. US two-year treasury rates were down 2 basis points to 1.74%. Other global bond yields were flat apart from Australia’s which dropped 7 basis points following the rise in the Jobless rate.
Stocks erased early gains while the Yen and Swiss France rallied. Both the Aussie and Kiwi were lower. With risk aversion creeping in, this general pattern should dictate Asian trading within ranges established yesterday.

EUR/USD – The Euro traded between 1.1023 and 1.1073 range yesterday. EUR/USD held above the pivotal support at 1.1000. Given the lower US yields, expect the shared currency to hold its gains. EUR/USD has immediate resistance at 1.1070 followed by 1.1100. Immediate support lies at 1.1020 and 1.1000. Look for a likely range today of 1.1030-1.1080.
USD/JPY – The Dollar slumped to an overnight low at 107.788 against the Yen from 108.45, before settling at 108.04. Immediate support lies at the 107.80 level followed by 107.50. Immediate resistance can be found at 108.20 and 108.50. While the momentum is lower for USD/JPY given lower US bond yields and more risk averse markets, keep in mind that market positioning is long of JPY bets (ie short USD). Look for a likely trading range today between 107.70-108.30. Prefer to buy dips.
AUD/USD – The Aussie Battler was under pressure all day following the release of Australia’s Employment report. While Employment saw a strong gain of +34,700 jobs (against a forecast of +15,200), the Jobless rate rose to 12-month highs at 5.3%. The Participation rate (proportion of people looking for work) was also higher at 66.1%, a new record. AUD/USD traded to an overnight low at 0.67803. This is immediate support on the day. The next support level can be found at 0.6850. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.6810 and 0.6840. Look to trade a likely range today of 0.6770-0.6820. Prefer to buy dips.

IG GBP USD CHART – 20 SEPT 2019

GBP/USD – Sterling jumped to a fresh 7-week high at 1.2560 on the Junker comments regarding the backstop and a possible Brexit deal before the October deadline. GBP shorts continue to reduce their positions which should keep the Pound buoyant. GBP/USD closed a touch lower at 1.2530 (1.2470 yesterday). Today is the highest close for Sterling since July 19. This makes me a bit cautious up at current levels. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2560 and 1.2600. Immediate support can be found at 1.2500 and 1.2470. Look to sell rallies with a likely range between 1.2475-1.2555 today.

Happy Friday and trading all.

Euro Lifts, Dollar Dips, US Yields Drop Ahead of Fed Verdict

September 18, 2019 by Michael Moran Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News, Market News - Asia Open Tagged: AUD/USD, Brexit, economy, EUR-USD, FED, Financial markets, FX, FX trading, GBP-USD, monetary policy, USD/JPY

Summary: The Euro lifted 0.6% to 1.1071 (1.1005) following upbeat German and Eurozone investor confidence readings. US treasury yields dropped on the eve of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting where policymakers are expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), a measure of its value against 5 major currencies, dipped 0.4% to 98.231 (98.652). Sterling rallied back to 1.2498 (1.2425) as speculators continued to cover their shorts. The Dollar was little changed against the Yen at 108.12 (108.15). Oil prices slipped 7.3% to US$ 63.15 after Saudi Arabia said it had fully restored oil production. The Australian Dollar closed flat at 0.6865 after slipping to 0.6830 the RBA left the door open for further rate cuts, its latest meeting minutes revealed.

FX FCTRY – GERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENT INDEX – 18 Sept 2019

The benchmark US 10-year bond yield fell 5 basis points to 1.80%. Two-year US bond rates closed at 1.72% from 1.76%. Wall Street stocks were up 0.1% on the oil price drop as the Saudi output restoration calmed fears.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index improved to -22.5 in September from August’s -44.1, beating forecasts at -38.0. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment lifted to -22.4 from -43.6. Canada’s Manufacturing Sales fell to -1.3% missing expectations of -0.3%. US Industrial Production rose to 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.2% and a previous reading of -0.2%.

EUR/USD – The shared currency bounced off the 1.1000 support level boosted by the upbeat German and Eurozone investor confidence. EUR/USD hit an overnight high at 1.10746, closing a touch lower at 1.1070.
GBP/USD – The British Pound rallied against broad-based US Dollar weakness as speculative shorts continued to cover their positions. GBP/USD rose to a fresh 6-week high at 1.2527 before easing to settle at 1.2498. Meantime the latest Commitment of Traders/CFTC report saw an increase in speculative net GBP shorts, the total of which are near 12-month highs.
AUD/USD – The Australian Dollar dropped to an overnight low at 0.6830 before rallying against the broad-based weaker US Dollar to close unchanged at 0.6865. The RBA’s latest meeting minutes revealed that policymakers left the door open to further rate cuts if needed.

On the Lookout: It’s all about the Fed. The US central bank is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate to 2.0% from the current 2.25%. Which would be the second time in a decade. The Fed is unlikely to signal future rate cuts and is expected to point to some improvement in the US economy. Markets will focus on the outlook for the rest of the year (dot plot) as well as any dissensions to a rate cut from within the FOMC.
Data released today are: New Zealand current account printed -1.11 billion, just matching forecasts of -1.10 billion. Japanese Trade Balance follows. Europe sees Eurozone Final Headline and Core CPI. The UK reports its Headline and Core CPI, PPI Input and Output, and RPI. Canadian Headline, Core and Trimmed Mean CPI follow next. US Building Permits and Housing Starts follow ahead of the Fed meeting.

Trading Perspective: Asian trading will keep major FX pairs within recent ranges. Expectations of a 0.25% cut are already in the current FX. It will come down to what Jerome Powell will signal for the days ahead.

Bloom-Saxo Bank COT Report – 18 Sept 2019

Meantime we look at the latest market positioning which would have an impact on FX heading into tomorrow morning’s Fed meeting.
Saxo Bank released the latest Commitment of Traders/CFTC report (week ended September10). Net speculative total USD longs bets declined 6% to a total of US$12.7 billion. Out of the 7 major IMM currencies, 5 were bought against the US Dollar. Only the Euro and Sterling saw increased selling. The Aussie and Kiwi shorts were reduced while the Canadian Dollar and Yen longs increased.

EUR/USD – The Euro rallied the most among the Majors against the Greenback. The ECB’s rate cut last week was probably its last for this year. With the Fed expected to deliver a 0.25% rate reduction, it will boil down to any signal of future cuts. The Shared currency closed near its high at 1.1071 (1.10746 overnight high). Immediate resistance today lies at 1.1085 followed by 1.1110. Immediate support can be found at 1.1060 followed by 1.1030. The latest COT report saw net speculative Euro shorts increase to -EUR 49,842 contracts from the previous week’s -EUR 49,136. Ahead of the Fed announcement (4.00 am Thursday, Sydney time) expect a likely range of 1.1035-1.1085.

TRADING VIEW – POUND – DOLLAR CHART – 18 SEPT 2019

GBP/USD – Sterling rallied 0.56% to close at 1.2498 after trading to 1.2527, fresh 6-week highs. Despite the Brexit uncertainty, the British currency continues to climb on short covering. The latest COT/CFTC report saw net speculative GPB shorts increase to -GBP 92,233 contracts (week ended Sept 10) from -GBP 84,959. This should keep Sterling underpinned and a softer US Dollar will see Sterling soar. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2530 followed by 1.2580. The next resistance level is at 1.2610. Immediate support can be found at 1.2460 and 1.2420. Look to trade a likely 1.2460-1.2510 ahead of the Fed.
USD/JPY – The Dollar closed little changed against the Yen at 108.12. Overnight high was 108.370. Immediate resistance can be found at 108.40 followed by 108.80. Immediate support lies at 107.90 and 107.60. The latest COT report saw an increase in net speculative JPY longs to +JPY 32,591 contracts from +JPY 27,682. These are highs not seen since late 2016. Which is a danger sign if the Fed are less dovish than markets expect. Geopolitical tensions though will keep demand for the haven Yen buoyant. Meantime look to trade a likely 107.85-108.35 range prior to the FOMC.
AUD/USD – The Aussie had a good bounce on the overall weaker US Dollar as well as improved risk sentiment on the Saudi announcement of its oil production restoration. Markets saw the RBA meeting minutes as dovish because policymakers left the door open to further rate cuts if necessary. This would depend much on the global economic situation and other central bank reactions. The latest COT report saw a small reduction in net speculative Aussie short bets to -AUD 53,014. From -AUD 59,318. AUD/USD has immediate resistance at 0.6885 followed by 0.6905. Immediate support can be found at 0.6830 followed by 0.6800. Look to trade a likely 0.6840-0.6890 range. Prefer to buy dips.

Happy trading all.

Dollar Slips, Yields Fall, Brexit Fears Hound the Pound

July 18, 2019 by Michael Moran Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News, Market News - Asia Open Tagged: AUD/USD, Brexit, CFTC, ECB, economy, EUR-USD, FCA, FED, financial institutions, Financial markets, financial services, FX trading, GBP-USD, Sino-U.S. trade talks, trading, trading platform, USD/JPY

Summary: The Dollar eased against most of its rivals following softer June Housing Starts and Building Permits data. Expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates led to a fall in US bond yields. Stronger-than-forecast US retail sales data had lifted the Greenback yesterday. Fears of a no-deal Brexit continued to hound the Pound, which hit fresh 27-month lows at 1.2382 before rebounding to 1.2430. UK Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay said that the risk of a no-deal split with the European Union is “under-priced.” The Euro hit a one-week low at 1.11998 before climbing back to 1.1225, at the lower end of its recent range. Expectations of an easing by the ECB has kept the Single Currency on the defensive. The Australian Dollar was little changed at 0.7010 (0.7013 yesterday). USD/JPY slipped to 107.99 from 108.27 on lower US yields. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield was down 6 basis points to 2.05%. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield was unchanged at -0.13%.

Forex Factory US Building Permits – 18 July 2019

Wall Street stocks fell on weaker than expected earnings.
US June Housing Starts missed forecasts at 1.25 million from 1.26 million. June Building Permits fell to 1.22 million from 1.29 million, and against an expected 1.30 million.
The Fed’s Beige Book economic report saw that the longest US economic expansion remained intact amidst trade risks.

Daily FX EUR USD Chart – 18 July 2019

EUR/USD – The Euro finished slightly higher at 1.1225 after trading in a narrow 1.11998 to 1.123336 range overnight. German 10-year bond yields were 4 basis points lower to -0.29%. The one week low of 1.1200 is providing solid support.
GBP/USD – Sterling slumped to a fresh 27 week low at 1.23820 before rebounding to 1.2430. Traders continued to sell the Pound on the perception that risks are growing for the UK to leave the EU without a transition deal in place. The latest Commitment of Traders report saw speculators dump the Pound for the 4^th straight week.
USD/JPY – The Dollar eased against the Yen to 107.99 from 108.27 yesterday, down 0.22%. Lower US bond yields continue to drag the Greenback lower. Speculative JPY shorts were trimmed by a large USD 1 billion.
AUD/USD – the Aussie Dollar was little changed at 0.7013 (0.7010 yesterday). Australia’s June Employment report is released later today. The dovish leaning RBA kept the Aussie Battler in check, while speculative Aussie short covering supported the currency.

On the Lookout: Today sees Japan’s Trade Balance and Australia’s June Employment report in Asia. The lone European report today comes from Switzerland, reporting its June trade balance.
UK data follow with June Headline and Core Retail Sales, (month and annual). Finally, US Weekly Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index finish the day’s reports.

Trading Perspective: With FX trading in tight summer ranges we look at market positioning. Saxo Bank’s Bloomberg Commitment of Traders/CFTC report for the week ended July 2 (delayed due to the US 4^th of July holiday) saw continued reduction of total net USD longs by speculators. According to Saxo Bank, bullish Dollar bets have now been cut by 65% from the late April peak. The bulk of these cuts have been against the Euro, Canadian Dollar and Yen. The main exception among the major currencies was Sterling (not surprising) where net GBP shorts have increased for the 4^th straight week.

Saxo Bank – Bloomberg COT Report – 18 July 2019

EUR/USD – The Euro held the support level around 1.1200 before rallying to close at 1.1225. This morning the Single Currency opens at 1.1229. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1240 (overnight high traded 1.12336). The next resistance level can be found at 1.1280. Immediate support at 1.1200 should hold with the next support level at 1.1180. The latest COT report was net short Eur bets cut further to -EUR 31,733 from the previous week’s -EUR 56,295. Look for a likely range today of 1.1210-1.1260. Prefer to buy dips.
GBP/USD – Sterling continues to trade heavy with the risk skewed to the downside. That said, Sterling short bets for the week ended July 2 increased to -GBP 64,244 contracts from the previous week’s -GBP 58,937. This is the 4^th straight week of GBP selling. Total short GBP short contracts stand at US$5.69 billion. That is a danger sign despite risks of the Pound grinding lower. Immediate support lies at 1.2380 (overnight low at 1.2382) followed by 1.2340. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2460 and 1.2500. Look for a likely range today of 1.2385-1.2485. Prefer to buy dips.
USD/JPY – The Dollar fell against the Yen on the lower US 10-year yield. USD/JPY closed at 108.00 after trading to 107.971 overnight. Immediate support lies at 107.80 followed by 107.60. Immediate resistance can be found at 108.30 and 108.60. The latest COT report was net speculative JPY shorts cut to -JPY 1,227 (week ended July 2) from the previous week’s -JPY 10,147. That’s virtually square. Look for a likely range today of 107.80-108.30. Just trade the range shag on this one.
AUD/USD – The Aussie was little changed, closing at 0.7013. The dovish tone from the RBA meeting minutes failed to push the currency any lower as shorts continue to support the Battler. Australia is forecast to have created 9,000 jobs in June from May’s 42,300 while the Jobless rate is expected to remain at 5.2%. The latest COT report saw speculative Aussie shorts trimmed to -AUD 58,735 contracts (week ended July 2) from -AUD 66,320. AUD/USD has immediate support at 0.6990 (overnight low 0.69962) followed by 0.6960. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.7030 (overnight high 0.70249) and 0.7060. Look to trade a likely range of 0.6990-0.7040. Prefer to buy dips.

Happy Thursday and trading all.

Equities Rally on Dovish Central Banks

June 19, 2019 by Nikolas Papas Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: Bitcoin, BOE, BOJ, Brexit, Capital Markets, Cryptocurrencies, Donald Trump presidency, economy, FED, financial services, FOMC, monetary policy, President Xi, trading platform

Asian indices finished higher today on dovish Central Banks ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy meeting. The Nikkei225 finished 1.72 percent higher to 21,333 the Hang Seng benchmark in Hong Kong, finished 2.29 percent higher at 28,136. The Shanghai Composite finished 1.19 percent higher to 2,922, while in Singapore the FTSE Straits Times index finished 1.47 percent higher to 3,286. Australian equities finished to fresh 11.5 year highs on Wednesday, with the ASX200 closed at 6648 after a gain of 1.2% or 78 points.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

European session started higher today in a quiet session amid renewed worries about trade relations between the US and China and a rise in geopolitical tensions. DAX30 is adding 0.77 percent to 11,999 CAC40 is 0.07 percent higher at 5,389 while the FTSE MIB in Milan is trading 0.35 percent lower at 20,552. The London Stock Exchange is 0,02 percent lower to 7,356 as the Brexit uncertainty continues.

In commodities markets, crude oil made an impressive rally yesterday during US session at 54.07 despite geopolitical tensions around the globe. Oil is down almost 18% from the high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally earlier this year, due to increased global trade worries. Brent oil also trades higher to $62,27 per barrel as major oil producers have yet to agree on adjustments on output. Gold trades flat at 1,345 as bulls are in full control. The precious metal holds above all the major daily moving averages and strong resistance will be met at 1,357 the yearly high.

In cryptocurrencies market, bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues higher today recovering some of yesterday losses, the daily low for BTC was at 8,930 and the daily high at 9,200. Immediate support for BTC stands now at $9,000 round figure while next support stands at 8,500 the previous week high. On the upside, strong resistance now stands at 9,477 the high from yesterday while I expect extra pressure from sellers at 9,600 and then at 10,000. Ethereum (ETHUSD) trades flat at 267, with capitalization now to 28.7 billion. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 287 the recent high while the support stands at 250 round figure, Litecoin (LTCUSD) adds 5 dollars to 134. The crypto market cap now stands above $283.0B.

On the Lookout: President Trump said he “had a very good telephone conversation” with China’s leader President Xi and that they will have “an extended meeting next week at the G20 [summit] in Japan”. This settled some concerns that both leaders might not meet.

Investors focus will be this week on the FOMC meeting today. The US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% this week. The week also sees the Bank of Japan and Bank of England policy meetings.

In macro news from America, we await the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released at 12:30GMT. The US EIA weekly crude stockpiles data will drop in at 14:30GMT. 11:00GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 June.

Trading Perspective: In forex markets, USD trades slightly flat at 97.67 ahead of the Fed policy meeting, while the Aussie dollar managed to rebound yesterday from the low around 0.68 to 0.6880 while Kiwi also trades higher at 0.6520.

GBPUSD trades flat at 1.2545 after the rebound yesterday from 1.25, as the bearish momentum for Cable is still intact amid growing concerns over the risk of no deal Brexit. Major support now stands at 1.25 round figure which if broken might accelerate the slide further towards 1.2480. On the upside immediate resistance now stands at 1.26 while more offers will emerge at 1.2641 the 50-hour moving average. Pound shows persistent weakness amid UK political uncertainty and also on the back of global risk aversion, so any uptick can match excess offers.

In Sterling futures markets the open interest increased by 143 contracts, volume reversed three consecutive drops and gained almost 21.7K contracts.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD trades flat just below the 1.12 mark ahead of the important FOMC policy meeting. The pair trades below the 50-day moving average, on the upside the immediate resistance stands at 1.1232 the 100-hour moving, while more offers will emerge at 1.1270 the 100-day moving average. Support stands at 1.12 round figure, while more bids will emerge at 1.1150 two week lows.

In euro futures markets, the open interest rose by around 13K contracts on Tuesday, volume gained nearly 116.7K contracts.

USDJPY is under pressure today down to 108,33, as traders turn cautious ahead of the FOMC policy meeting. The pair hit the low at 108.21 and the high at 108.61. The pair will find support around 108.00. On the upside, immediate resistance for the pair now stands at 109 round figure. The USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair’s momentum as traders focus shifts to FED next move later today.

In Yen futures markets, the open interest rose by around 3.7K contracts on Tuesday, volume followed suit, up by nearly 88K contracts.

USDCAD is pressured today down to 1.3377 as the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, Canada’s main export item seems to have added further strength in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair will find immediate support at the 200-day moving average around 1.3250 while extra support stands at 1.3200 round figure. On the upside, immediate resistance now stands at the 1.35 zone before an attempt to 1.3560 recent high from 31st May.

Markets Calm ahead of FED Policy Meeting

June 18, 2019 by Nikolas Papas Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: AEST, Bitcoin, Brexit, Capital Markets, economy, FOMC meeting, FOMC policy, monetary policy, RBA, Sino-U.S. trade talks, trading platform

Asian indices finished higher today except for Nikkei ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy meeting and as trade worries resurface. The Nikkei225 finished 0.72 percent lower to 20,972, the Hang Seng benchmark in Hong Kong finished 1.20 percent higher at 27,555. The Shanghai Composite finished 0.09 percent higher to 2,890, while in Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times index finished 0.96 percent higher to 3,237. Australian equities added to early gains thanks to further signs of RBA rate cuts with the ASX 200 index lifting by 0.6 per cent or 39.1pts to 6570.

European session started higher today in a quiet session amid renewed worries about trade relations between the US and China and a rise in geopolitical tensions. DAX30 is adding 0.77 percent to 11,999, CAC40 is 0.07 percent higher at 5,389, while the FTSE MIB in Milan is trading 0.35 percent lower at 20,552. The London Stock Exchange is 0,02 percent lower to 7,356 as the Brexit uncertainty continues.

In commodities markets, crude oil trades lower at 51.67 despite geopolitical tensions around the globe. Oil is down almost 18% from the high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally earlier this year, due to increased global trade worries. Brent oil also trades lower to $60,57 per barrel as major oil producers have yet to agree on adjustments on output. Gold trades higher at 1,345 as bulls are in full control. The precious metal holds above all the major daily moving averages and strong resistance will be met at 1,357 the yearly high.

XAUUSD Daily Chart

In cryptocurrencies market, bitcoin (BTCUSD) retreats from recent high as traders taking some profits off the table, the daily low for BTC was at 9,019 and the daily high at 9,477. Immediate support for BTC stands now at $9,000 round figure while next support stands at 8,500 the previous week high. On the upside, strong resistance now stands at 9,477 the high from Asian session while I expect extra pressure from sellers at 9,600 and then at 10,000. Ethereum (ETHUSD) trades flat at 268, with capitalization now to 28.7 billion. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 287 the recent high while the support stands at 250 round figure, Litecoin (LTCUSD) gives up 6 dollars to 129. The crypto market cap now stands above $283.0B.

On the Lookout: The minutes from RBA meeting released this morning at 11.30am AEST and have essentially confirmed that further easing is on its way. The central bank said that further easing is more likely than not, that lower rates are unlikely to risk a pick-up in borrowing and won’t risk a sharp inflation lift. RBA considers a rate cut in August and another in November as possible.

Investors focus will be this week on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% this week. The week also sees the Bank of Japan and Bank of England policy meetings.

In macro news from America, we await the US building permits for May.

Trading Perspective: In forex markets, USD trades slightly lower at 97.37 ahead of the Fed policy meeting, while the Aussie dollar makes new lows at 0.6832 while Kiwi breached the 0.65 mark and trades at 0.6495.

GBPUSD started the day making a new low at 1.2511 during the Asian session but from that level started a rebound during the European session and as of writing the pair is trading at 1.2540 close to daily high, as the bearish momentum for Cable is still intact amid growing concerns over Brexit. Major support now stands at 1.25 round figure which if broken might accelerate the slide further towards 1.2480. On the upside immediate resistance now stands at 1.26 while more offers will emerge at 1.2641 the 50-hour moving average. Pound shows persistent weakness amid UK political uncertainty and also on the back of global risk aversion, so any uptick can match excess offers.

In Sterling futures markets the open interest increased by 1K contracts, volume shrunk for the third day in a row, by around 43.5K contracts.

EURUSD started the day on positive foot trading at 1.1240 ahead of the important FOMC policy meeting. The pair trades above the 50-day moving average, on the upside the immediate resistance stands at 1.1262 the 100-hour moving, while more offers will emerge at 1.1270 the 100-day moving average. Support stands at 1.12 round figure, while more bids will emerge at 1.1150 two week lows.

In euro futures markets, the open interest shrunk by 1.3K contracts on Monday, volume, in also went down by around 215.1K contracts.

EURUSD Daily Chart

USDJPY is under pressure today down to 108,21, as traders turn cautious ahead of the FOMC policy meeting. The pair hit the low at 108.20 and the high at 108.57. The pair will find support around 108.00, on the upside immediate resistance for the pair now stands at 109 round figure. The USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair’s momentum as traders focus shifts to FED next move on Wednesday.

USDCAD started in quite a mood the week and trading as of writing at 1.3408 as the retreat in crude oil prices, Canada’s main export item seems to have added further weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair will find immediate support at the 200-day moving average around 1.3250 while extra support stands at 1.3200 round figure. On the upside immediate resistance now stands at the 1.35 zone before an attempt to 1.3560 recent high from 31st May.

Gold Shines, Breaks above 1,354

June 14, 2019 by Nikolas Papas Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Brexit, Capital Markets, Cryptocurrencies, economy, FED, Gulf of Oman, monetary policy, trading platform, UK political proceedings

Asian indices finished mostly lower as trade worries resurface and the attack in two oil tankers in Gulf of Oman weighing on traders sentiment. The Nikkei225 finished 0.40 percent higher to 21,116 and the Hang Seng benchmark in Hong Kong finished 0.83 percent lower at 27,065. The Shanghai Composite finished 0.99 percent lower to 2,881, while in Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times index finished 0.32 percent lower to 3,210. Australian equities finished up 11 points or 0.2% to 6,554. Over the week, the index jumped 1.7%.

European session started lower today amid renewed worries about trade relations between the US and China and a rise in geopolitical tensions. DAX30 is giving up 0.88 percent to 12,062 CAC40 is 0.54 percent lower at 5,346 while the FTSE MIB in Milan is trading 0.32 percent lower at 20,634. The London Stock Exchange is 0.57 percent lower to 7,324 as the Brexit uncertainty continues.

XAUUSD Hourly (H1)

In commodities markets, crude oil consolidates higher at 52.10 after reports that two tankers have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Oil is down almost 18% from the high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally earlier this year due to increased global trade worries. Brent oil also trades lower to $61,33 per barrel as major oil producers have yet to agree on adjustments on output. Gold shines and trades higher to 1,356 hitting fresh yearly high, following the recent developments in the Gulf of Oman. The precious metal broke above the 50 and 100-hour moving averages yesterday turning the short-term technical picture to bullish. Gold will find support at the 1300 round figure and then at 1295, the 100-day moving average while more bids will emerge at the 50-day moving average at 1287. On the upside, resistance stands at 1368, the high from April 2018.

In cryptocurrencies market, bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues its trip north to the 8,200 mark. The daily low for BTC was at 8,168 and the daily high at 8,327. Immediate support for BTC stands now at the $8,000 round figure while the next support stands at 7411, the low from the recent trading range. On the upside, strong resistance now stands at 8,327, the high from Asian while I expect extra pressure from sellers at 8,500 and then at 8,700. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gives up four dollars to 254, with capitalization now to 27 billion, on the upside the immediate resistance stands at 287 the recent high while the support stands at 200 round figure, Litecoin (LTCUSD) consolidate retreats from yesterdays high at 128. The crypto market cap holds above $260.0B.

On the Lookout: Geopolitics are driving the markets today, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Faith Birol commented that recent attacks on tankers in the Gulf raised major concerns for global energy security and oil markets. In the UK, the first Conservative Party leadership contest revealed overwhelming support for Boris Johnson in his bid to become the next PM.

Later today, we await from North America the US retail sales, production and consumer sentiment data.

Trading Perspective: In fx markets, USD trades flat at 96.44 on speculation over Fed rate cut, while the Aussie dollar trades lower to 0.6899 as yesterday jobless rate remained steady at 5.2% in May. Kiwi also trades lower to 0.6545 level as downbeat manufacturing PMI figure flagged further RBNZ rate cuts.

GBPUSD is trading lower today breaking below the 1.27 as the bearish momentum for Cable is still intact amid growing concerns over Brexit. The pair hit the daily low at 1.2625 and the daily high at 1.2621. Major support now stands at 1.26 recent low. On the upside, immediate resistance now stands at 1.2753 the high from yesterday. Pound shows persistent weakness amid UK political uncertainty and also on the back of global risk aversion, so any uptick can match excess offers.

In Sterling futures markets the open interest shrunk by around 6.7K contracts, reversing the previous build. In the same line, the volume went down by just 646 contracts.

EURUSD started the day lower visiting new low around 1.1251. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 1.1340 the high from yesterday, while more offers will emerge at 1.1367 the 200-day moving average. Support stands at 1.1219 the 50-day moving average, while more bids will emerge at 1.12 round figure.

EURUSD Daily Chart

In euro futures markets, the open interest increased by 11.7K contracts on Thursday, volume, shrunk by around 307.2K contracts, the largest single-day drop so far this year.

USDJPY trades 0.15 percent lower to 108,21, today the pair hit the low at 108.15 for the second day in a row and the high at 108.39. The pair will find support at 107.84 recent low, on the upside immediate resistance for the pair now stands at 108.71 the high from yesterday. The USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair’s momentum as traders focus shifts to FED’s next move.

USDCAD makes an attempt higher and trading as of writing at 1.3337 as the retreat in crude oil prices, Canada’s main export item seems to have added further weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair will find immediate support at the 200-day moving average around 1.3250 while extra support stands at the 1.3200 round figure. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 1.33 zone before an attempt to 1.3348 where the 100-day moving average stands.

Equities Mixed as Chinese Cues Dictate Directional Bias, US Futures Green on Rate Cut Hopes

June 14, 2019 by Karthik Subramanian Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: Brexit, Capital Markets, economy, FED, G20 summit, Middle East, monetary policy, OPEC, Sino-U.S. trade war, trading platform, UK political proceedings, US Wall Street

Summary: Global equity market is seeing mixed price action in the global market today. Lack of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks, increasing awareness that trade deal between two parties is unlikely in the upcoming G20 summit and headlines on massive street protests act as factors which provide the market with bearish cues. This has resulted in investor sentiment remaining divided in the global market. Further, the reduction in 2019 global crude oil demand growth forecast by OPEC also hurt risk appetite. While trade tensions and crude oil woes influenced European market to open in red, the surge in telecom shares over Germany’s announcement of completing its 5G mobile spectrum auction helped market retain some level of positive activity in the market. However, fundamentals remain shaky at this point in time. Forex assets display a high level of bearish influence showing the impact of headlines on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Asian and European market so far today.

Precious Metals: Both gold and silver are trading positive in the global market today given divided investor sentiment and prevalent cautious tone over the trade war and crude oil woes. Reduction in crude oil demand growth forecast, news of the attack on gulf crude oil tankers also affected market price activity, favouring demand for safe-haven assets.

Crude Oil: The liquid gold declined to 5-month lows earlier today as news of OPEC’s reduction in crude oil demand growth forecast for the year ahead took the wind out of bulls. However, news of the attack on gulf tankers, crude oil shipments amid ongoing supply to demand scenario helped black gold regain positive price action in spot and futures markets.

AUD/USD: The pair fell sharply earlier in the day over disappointing Australian unemployment data resulting in bulls waging strong war for control of price action near the 0.69 handle. While the pair has managed to stabilize near the 0.69 handle in the late European session, dovish cues from China resulted in bulls losing the edge and pair trading with strong bearish bias in the global market.

On The Lookout: Geo-Political issues take the center stage of investors’ attention today. While Sino-U.S. trade war-related updates continue to garner more attention and have a high impact on the market, all eyes are now on UK political proceedings. Given the fact that China won’t budge regardless of USA’s threatening tactics, it has become increasingly clear to investors across the globe that this issue is going to go into the long term.

UK political proceedings

Meanwhile, the top 10 PM contenders in the UK for the role of PM are facing the first secret MP ballot today and any candidate failing to secure a minimum of 17 MP votes in their favor will be ousted from the race. The main point here is that, regardless of who succeeds, UK seems to be on a path for hard Brexit once the PM candidate is decided and the possibility of such an outcome is a cause of great concern in the global market. Aside from geopolitical events, traders await macro data updates for short term profit opportunities.

Trading Perspective: The directional bias for price action in US Wall Street seems to remain in favor of market bulls for now. US stock and benchmark index futures trading in the international market gained positive momentum over energy share led gains post sharp surge in crude oil price. While news of the attack on crude tankers in the Middle East managed to outweigh market bears for now and influence from fed rate cut expectations provide some level of fundamental support. But any provocative remarks or comments from President Trump could still push market fundamentals in favor of bears later today. However, a lack of any such comments would suggest that bulls will retain control over price action.

EUR/USD: The common currency has lost its upper hand against US Greenback despite the latter remaining weak on dovish fate rate decision expectations. As Sino-U.S. trade war woes hurt risk appetite in the market, lack of support from macro data updates amid mixed investor sentiment in the global market led to the pair trading in red while traders await US macro data for directional bias.

GBP/USD: The British Pound is facing sharp loss as the first round of vote on PM replacement decision in UK parliament takes place today. As traders await results of the first round of the election, increasing odds surrounding Brexit causes the pair to remain in bear’s territory. Traders now await UK headlines and US macro data updates for short term profit opportunities.

USD/CAD: The pair is trading in favor of Canadian Dollar as Crude oil price surged sharply in the global market. Price of crude oil went up by more than 4% despite OPEC’s reduction in demand growth forecast for the year ahead as supply woes increased on news of the attack on crude oil tankers in the Middle East. Further, weak USD on dovish fed rate decision bets also favor CAD bulls resulting in pair trading in red. Regardless of US trade data outcome later today, the pair is likely to trade in red across US market hours on positive crude oil price.

EURUSD breaks below 1.13, Bitcoin holds the 8,000 mark

June 13, 2019 by Nikolas Papas Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Brexit, China extradition bill, economy, Gulf of Oman, Italy budget, monetary policy, Sino-U.S. trade talks, trading platform, UK politics

Asian indices finished lower for the second day in a row as trade worries resurface and Hong Kong protests regarding the China extradition bill weighs on traders sentiment. The Nikkei225 finished 0.46 percent lower to 21,032; the Hang Seng benchmark in Hong Kong, finished 0.05 percent lower at 27,294. The Shanghai Composite finished 0.04 percent higher to 2,910, while in Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times index finished 0.05 percent lower to 3,207. Australian equities saw a brief spike following the release of the May jobs report but soon fell back into its old pattern. At the end of the day, the ASX200 finished 1.3 points or 0.02% lower at 6542.4.

European session started higher today despite renewed worries about trade relations between the US and China and a rise in geopolitical tensions. DAX30 is adding 0.64 percent to 12,193, CAC40 is 0.32 percent higher at 5,391 while the FTSE MIB in Milan is trading 0.84 percent higher at 20,634. The London Stock Exchange is 0.37 percent higher to 7,394 as the Brexit uncertainty continues.

In commodities markets, crude oil jumps higher at 52.3 after reports that two tankers have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Oil is down almost 18% from the high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally earlier this year due to increased global trade worries. Brent oil also trades higher to $61,71 per barrel as major oil producers have yet to agree on adjustments on output. Gold also trades higher to 1,337, following the recent developments in the Gulf of Oman. The precious metal broke above the 50 and 100-hour moving averages yesterday turning the short term technical picture to bullish. Gold will find support at the 1300 round figure and then at 1295, the 100-day moving average, while more bids will emerge at the 50-day moving average at 1287. On the upside, resistance stands at 1344 the high from the previous week.

BTCUSD Hourly (H1) Chart

In cryptocurrencies market, bitcoin (BTCUSD) managed to break above the key 8,000 mark, the daily low for BTC was at 8,048, and the daily high at 8,177. Immediate support for BTC stands now at $8,000 round figure while next support stands at 7411, the low from the recent trading range. On the upside, strong resistance now stands at 8,261, the high from yesterday while I expect extra pressure from sellers at 8,500 and then at 8,700. Ethereum (ETHUSD) adds twelve dollars to 258, with capitalization now to 27.5 billion. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 287, the recent high while the support stands at 200 round figure. Litecoin (LTCUSD) consolidate around yesterdays high at 136. The crypto market cap holds above $262.0B.

On the Lookout:

Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in May, contradicting the market expectation of a drop to 5.1%. The Aussie economy added 42,300 jobs in May, beating both the analyst’s expectation of 17.5K and the previous month’s print of 28.4K by a big margin.

The Swiss central bank (SNB) decides on monetary policy today at 09.30.

Trading Perspective: In fx markets, USD trades lower at 96.44 on speculation over Fed rate cut, while the Aussie dollar trades lower to 0.696 as jobless rate remained steady at 5.2% in May. Kiwi also trades lower to 0.6566 level as New Zealand has cut its budget surplus forecast for 2019/20 to NZD1.3bn.

GBPUSD is trading lower today breaking below the 1.27 as the bearish momentum for Cable is still intact amid growing concerns over Brexit. The pair hit the daily low at 1.2661 and the daily high at 1.2700. Major support now stands at 1.26 recent low. On the upside, immediate resistance now stands at 1.2753, the high from yesterday. Pound shows persistent weakness amid UK political uncertainty and also on the back of global risk aversion. So any uptick can match excess offers.

In Sterling futures markets, the open interest increased by 2.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, while volume increased by almost 81K contracts.

EURUSD started the day lower breaking below 1.13 and has trapped in 10 pips trading range. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 1.1340 the high from yesterday, while more offers will emerge at 1.1367, the 200-day moving average. Support stands at 1.1271, the 100-day moving average, while more bids will emerge at 1.12 round figure.

In euro futures markets, the open interest rose by more than 24K contracts on Wednesday, while volume posted the biggest up move since March 7, increasing by around 265.4K contracts.

EURUSD Daily Chart

USDJPY trades 0.07 percent lower to 108,44, today the pair hit the low at 108.15 and the high at 108.53. The pair will find support at 107.84 recent low. On the upside, immediate resistance for the pair now stands at 108.71, the high from yesterday. The USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair’s momentum as traders focus shifts to FED next move.

In Yen futures markets, open interest shrunk by almost 3.3K contracts on Wednesday, while, volume rose for the second session in a row, this time by nearly 53.4K contracts.

USDCAD makes an attempt higher and trading as of writing at 1.3315 as the retreat in crude oil prices. Canada’s main export item seems to have added further weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair will find immediate support at the 200-day moving average around 1.3250 while extra support stands at 1.3200 round figure. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 1.33 zone before an attempt to 1.3348 where the 100-day moving average stands.

Relief Rally Continues, Gold under Pressure

June 11, 2019 by Nikolas Papas Leave a Comment Filed Under: Market News - European Open Tagged: Blockchain, Brexit, Cryptocurrencies, ECB, economy, EUR-USD, FED, Italy budget, Sino-U.S. trade talks, trading platform

Asian indices continue higher for the second day as investor digesting the news that President Donald Trump suspended plans to impose tariffs on Mexico but the market’s going to remain sensitive to trade news flow for some time particularly as we head into the G20. The Nikkei225 finished 0.33 percent higher to 21,204 the Hang Seng benchmark in Hong Kong, finished 0.81 percent higher at 27,796. The Shanghai Composite finished 2.58 percent higher to 2,925, while in Singapore the FTSE Straits Times index finished 0.63 percent higher to 3,208. Australian equities climbing 86 points or 1.34% to 6530 as broad-based gains help lift the market.

European session started on positive foot today as the relief rally continues for the fifth trading day in a row as traders cheer the U.S. – Mexico deal. DAX30 is adding 1.22 percent to 12,193, CAC40 is 0.53 percent higher at 5,411 while the FTSE MIB in Milan is trading 0.59 percent higher at 20,606. The London Stock Exchange is 0,47 percent higher to 7,410 as the Brexit uncertainty continues.

XAUUSD Hourly (H1) Chart

In commodities markets crude oil retreats from recent high today and trades at 53.82. Oil is down almost 18% from the high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally earlier this year, due to increasing trade worries. Brent oil also trades lower to $62,70 per barrel as major oil producers have yet to agree on adjustments on output. Gold trades lower giving up 2 dollars to 1,324, as news from the US-Mexico front calms investors who are dumping safe-haven assets. The precious metal broke below the 50 and 100 hour moving averages turning the short term technical picture to bearish. Gold will find support at 1300 round figure and then at 1295 the 100-day moving average while more bids will emerge at the 50-day moving average at 1287 on the upside resistance stands at 1344 the high from the previous week.

In cryptocurrencies market, bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues the consolidation below the 8,000, mark, the daily low for BTC was at 7,899 and the daily high at 8,047. Immediate support for BTC stands now at $7,411 the low from the previous week, on the upside strong resistance now stands at 8,000 round figure. Ethereum (ETHUSD) recovers yesterday losses and trades to 245, with capitalization now to 25 billion. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 287 the recent high while the support stands at 200 round figure, Litecoin (LTCUSD) is the outperformer today adding 10 dollars to 129. The crypto market cap holds above $173.0B.

On the Lookout: Olli Rehn is in the news saying that the ECB could strengthen forward guidance, cut interest rates, and relaunch QE if needed. The European Monetary Union Sentix Investor Confidence came in at -3.3, below expectations (2.9) in June.

In Australia macro news according to the NAB Business survey, business confidence levels for May were the highest since July 2018 in reaction to the re-election of the coalition government during the month.

Trading Perspective: In fx markets, USD trades flat at 96.65 on speculation over Fed rate cut, while the Aussie dollar trades lower to 0.6957 despite positive news from Chinese trade data. Kiwi also trades lower to 0.6593 level as New Zealand has cut its budget surplus forecast for 2019/20 to NZD1.3bn.

GBPUSD is flat for one more day trading above and below the 1.27 mark as the bearish momentum for Cable is still intact amid growing concerns over Brexit. The pair hit the daily low at 1.2669 and the daily high at 1.2702. Major support now stands at 1.26 recent low. On the upside immediate resistance now stands at 1.2723 the high from yesterday. Pound shows persistent weakness amid UK political uncertainty and also on the back of global risk aversion, so any uptick can match excess offers.

In Pound futures markets the open interest increased by 4.5K contracts on Monday, the volume went up by almost 67.8K contracts.

EURUSD started the day higher breaking above the yesterday high and is trading at 1.1325. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 1.1331 the high from Asian session, while more offers will emerge at 1.1367 the 200-day moving average. Support stands at 1.1273 the 100-day moving average, while more bids will emerge at 1.12 round figure. We are following news from Italy as their budget deficit dispute with the European Commission continues, and the political turmoil in Austria and Greece.

In euro futures markets, the open interest increased by more than 25K contracts on Monday, volume, shrunk for the second day in a row, this time by around 28K contracts.

EURUSD Daily Chart

USDJPY trades flat to 108,68, today the pair hit the low at 108.34 and the high at 108.66. The pair will find support at 107.84 recent low, on the upside immediate resistance for the pair now stands at 108.71 the high from the Asian session. The USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair’s momentum as traders focus shifts to FED next move.

In Yen futures markets, open interest shrunk by around 1.5K contracts, while volume rose by around 20.3K contracts.

USDCAD consolidates to recent low and trading as of writing at 1.3261 close to daily low as the rebound in crude oil prices, Canada’s main export item, seems to have added further strength in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair will find immediate support at the 200-day moving average around 1.3250 while extra support stands at 1.3200 round figure. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 1.33 zone before an attempt to 1.3348 where the 100-day moving average stands.

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