SGD/JPY to 122.45 by the October 30 BOJ outlook

Singapore dollar/Japanese yen (SGD/JPY) reaches 122.45 by October 30, 2026 in the base case, 123.61 in the bull case and 122.06 in the bear case. The base case is a smaller further yen gain against the Singapore dollar into the Bank of Japan (BOJ) outlook, after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band unchanged.

The cross implied by the October 23, 2026 MAS midday fix is 122.83, equal to 100 divided by 0.8141 Singapore dollars per 100 yen, down from 123.61 on October 1. Over the same days the Singapore dollar barely moved against the US dollar, from 1.2792 to 1.2775 on the same MAS table. The rest of this note shows that arithmetic and those three prints.

Key Levels:

• Asset: SGD/JPY at 122.83 — MAS midday, October 23, 2026, from 0.8141 Singapore dollars per 100 yen
• Base case target: 122.45 by October 30, 2026 — half the unrounded October decline
• Bull case target: 123.61 — the October 1 MAS-implied level
• Bear case target: 122.06 — the October decline repeated
• Major support: 122.06 — no weaker October MAS inversion
• Major resistance: 123.61 — the October 1 inversion
• Invalidation level: a MAS fix above 123.89 before October 30 — October 7, from 0.8072

How the 122.45 level was built

MAS does not publish SGD/JPY. The exchange-rate page prints Singapore dollars per 100 yen as a midday Refinitiv average, not an MAS dealing quote. Dividing 100 by the October 23 rate of 0.8141 gives 122.8345. The October 1 rate of 0.8090 gives 123.6094, a gap of 0.7749 yen. Half of that gap, taken off the October 23 inversion, is 122.45. A full repeat is 122.06. The October 7 rate of 0.8072 inverts to 123.89, the invalidation. The window is October 1 to October 23. This cross is not a Commodity Futures Trading Commission contract, so no positioning figure is used.

Related:EUR/ZAR to 18.2290 by November 19: the gap still holds

What the October fixes show

The MAS-implied cross fell from 123.47 on October 22, the inversion of 0.8099, to 122.83 on October 23. October 7, at 0.8072, remains the yen-weak extreme.

Sources: MAS exchange-rate table, October 1 to October 23, 2026; BOJ sheet, October 1 and October 22. Each 17:00 mid averages that sheet's bid and offer. No October 23 BOJ sheet was on the daily list.

SGD/JPY in this note means yen per one Singapore dollar, and it is an inversion rather than a published cross. MAS prints Singapore dollars per 100 yen, a midday average of interbank quotes from Refinitiv, and warns that the rates are not MAS dealing rates. On October 23, 2026 the rate was 0.8141, so 100 divided by 0.8141 is 122.83. On October 1 it was 0.8090, which inverts to 123.61. The cross fell 0.78 yen, or 0.63 percent, between those fixes. The dollar leg did not do the work: MAS printed 1.2775 Singapore dollars per US dollar on October 23 against 1.2792 on October 1, a change of 0.0017. The October 7 rate of 0.8072 still marks the month's high for the cross, at 123.89. Those three prints are enough to rebuild the spot and the invalidation.

The October 22 BOJ sheet puts the 17:00 dollar-yen mid at 157.23, against 158.39 on October 1, with that day's low at 156.85. The prior-day nominal effective yen index was 73.44, against 73.84. The October Macroeconomic Review, data through October 9, said the domestic currency depreciated against the yen.

"We revise our end-2026 USDJPY forecast to 155 from 160 and target 150 by end-2027 as Japan's deep currency undervaluation could become harder for investors to ignore."

— Sim Moh Siong, FX Strategist, OCBC (OCBC FX Focus, October 2, 2026)

Why 122.45 is the October 30 case

The date is the BOJ's, not a headline's. The meeting schedule puts the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 29 and October 30, 2026, and the Bank's View of the outlook on October 30. The call ends there. OCBC's 155 is a year-end dollar-yen view, not this target.

Singapore will not steepen the band inside this window. The October 14 statement maintained the slope and left the width and the centre unchanged, after a slight increase on April 14 and a very slight increase on July 27 (decision log). An earlier note that looked for another slope increase pre-dated that hold. The next statement is not later than January 29, 2027, on the advance calendar.

On September 18 the Policy Board voted seven to two to guide the overnight call rate to around 1.25 percent, from around 1.0 percent, effective September 24. Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano dissented. The statement said the Bank would continue to raise the policy rate. The September guidance-gap note covered that vote. This note asks whether October 30 keeps the sentence.

The path to 122.45 by October 30 is a timing claim, not a pre-announced cross. MAS has no new slope decision inside the horizon, so the Singapore dollar's policy impulse does not accelerate before January 29, 2027. The BOJ does have a document, on October 30, that can keep or drop the September pledge to continue raising the overnight call rate from around 1.25 percent. If that pledge survives, half of the unrounded October decline, taken off the October 23 inversion, lands at 122.45. The bear case at 122.06 repeats that whole decline. The bull case at 123.61 is a return to the October 1 fix. A hold at 1.25 percent, with the hike sentence left intact, still fits the base case. Only a softer outlook, or a MAS fix back through 123.89, knocks it over.

What the framework leaves out

The BOJ sheet stops at October 22. Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann at United Overseas Bank still looked for dollar-yen to hold 157.70/158.80 over one to three weeks after a close of 158.13 (FXStreet, October 22). The BOJ low that day was 156.85. The late-October franc-yen note shows yen crosses need not move together. OCBC flags intervention risk above 160 in dollar-yen.

"We remain bullish on the SGD as the credibility of its institutions is an increasingly scarce commodity in an uncertain world and this should continue to build SGD resilience."

— Saktiandi Supaat, leading Maybank's FX research team (The Business Times, October 15, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 122.45 breaks if any one of these three signals prints on an issuer page.

• A MAS midday fix implies SGD/JPY above 123.89. That is Singapore dollars per 100 yen at or below 0.8072, the October 7 extreme. The October yen gain would be gone.
• The October 30 outlook drops the line that the Bank will continue to raise the policy rate. A hold at 1.25 percent does not, alone, break the call. A Bank's View that no longer points to further adjustment does.
• The BOJ 17:00 dollar-yen mid on October 30 is back above 158.39. That is the October 1 mid. The yen would have given back the October gain on the BOJ's own sheet.

What to watch into the outlook

The Board meets on October 29 and October 30, and the Bank's View is out when the meeting ends. The summary of opinions follows on November 10 and the minutes on December 23, both on the BOJ calendar. Those later papers cannot reopen a call that expires on October 30. Singapore's October prices are due on November 23, and the next MAS statement is not later than January 29, 2027. Before then, the check is whether 100 divided by the next MAS yen rate is still below 123.61. The December 17–18 meeting is the next BOJ date and sits outside this horizon.

TL;DR

SGD/JPY reaches 122.45 by October 30, 2026 in the base case, 123.61 if the yen stalls, and 122.06 if the October drop repeats. Spot is 122.83, the October 23 MAS inversion of 0.8141 Singapore dollars per 100 yen. MAS left the S$NEER slope unchanged on October 14. The call dies if a MAS fix implies a cross above 123.89, if the October 30 outlook drops the pledge to keep raising the policy rate, or if that day's BOJ dollar-yen mid is back above 158.39.

FAQ

How is the SGD/JPY spot in this note calculated?

It is 100 divided by the MAS midday rate of Singapore dollars per 100 yen. On October 23, 2026 that rate was 0.8141, so the cross is 122.83. MAS does not publish an SGD/JPY series. The page says the inputs are Refinitiv interbank quotes around midday and are not attributable to MAS.

What did MAS decide on October 14, 2026?

MAS maintained the S$NEER slope on October 14, 2026 and left the width and the centre unchanged. April 14 brought a slight slope increase and July 27 a very slight one. The statement puts 2026 core inflation at 1.5–2.0 percent, all-items inflation around 2.0 percent, and third-quarter growth at 5.4 percent year on year.

What is the Bank of Japan's policy rate going into October 30?

On September 18, 2026 the Policy Board voted seven to two to guide the overnight call rate to around 1.25 percent, from around 1.0 percent, effective September 24. The Bank said it would continue to raise the policy rate. Holding 1.25 percent on October 30 would not, alone, break this call. Dropping that guidance would.

Why is the horizon October 30 and not the next MAS review?

The MAS calendar puts the next statement at not later than January 29, 2027, an outer bound rather than a fixed morning. The BOJ calendar names October 30, 2026 for the outlook's Bank's View. The cross has already moved 0.78 yen in October on the MAS fix. A January horizon would be a different call.

Does a lower SGD/JPY mean the Singapore dollar is in trouble?

No. From October 1 to October 23 the MAS dollar rate moved only from 1.2792 to 1.2775, while Singapore dollars per 100 yen moved from 0.8090 to 0.8141. The cross fell because the yen strengthened. MAS still runs an appreciating S$NEER band, so a lower cross can sit beside a steady trade-weighted Singapore dollar.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.