The Copom unanimously decided to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% p.a.
The following observations provide an update of the Copom’s baseline scenario:
Recent data on economic activity continue to indicate a gradual recovery of the Brazilian economy;
The global outlook remains challenging for emerging economies. The main risks are associated with an increase in risk aversion in global financial markets, with normalization of interest rates in some advanced economies, and with uncertainty regarding global trade.
The Committee judges that various measures of underlying inflation are running at appropriate or comfortable levels. This includes the components that are most sensitive to the business cycle and monetary policy.
Inflation expectations for 2018, 2019 and 2020 collected by the Focus survey are around 3.7%, 4.1%, and 4.0%, respectively. Expectations for 2021 are around 3.75%.
The Copom’s inflation projections in the scenario with interest rate and exchange rate paths extracted from the Focus survey stand around 3.7% for 2018, 3.9% for 2019, and 3.6% for 2020. This scenario assumes a path for the Selic rate that ends 2018 at 6.5% p.a., increases to 7.5% p.a. over the course of 2019, and reaches 8.0% p.a. by 2020. It also assumes a path for the exchange rate that ends 2018 at R$/US$ 3.78, and ends both 2019 and 2020 at R$/US$ 3.80. In the scenario with a constant interest rate, at 6.5% p.a., and a constant exchange rate, at R$/US$ 3.85*, the projections for 2018, 2019, and 2020 stand around 3.7%, 4.0%, and 4.0%, respectively.
The Committee emphasizes that risks around its baseline scenario remain in both directions, but with larger weight on the last two risks. On the one hand, (i) the high level of economic slack may lead to a lower-than-expected prospective inflation trajectory. On the other hand, (ii) frustration of expectations regarding the continuation of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian economy may affect risk premia and increase the path for inflation over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy. This risk intensifies in case (iii) the global outlook for emerging economies deteriorates. The Committee judges that risk (i) has increased, whereas risk (ii) has moderated.
Taking into account the baseline scenario, the balance of risks, and the wide array of available information, the Copom unanimously decided to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% p.a. The Committee judges that this decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the associated balance of risks, and is consistent with the convergence of inflation to target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2019 and, with a smaller weight, 2020.
The Copom reiterates that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level.
The Copom emphasizes that the evolution of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian economy is essential to maintain low inflation in the medium and long run, for the reduction of its structural interest rate, and for sustainable economic recovery. The Committee stresses that the perception of continuation of the reform agenda affects current expectations and macroeconomic projections.
In the Copom’s assessment, the evolution of the baseline scenario and of the balance of risks prescribes keeping the Selic rate at its current level. The Copom emphasizes that the next steps in the conduct of monetary policy will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and on inflation projections and expectations.
The following members of the Committee voted for this decision: Ilan Goldfajn (Governor), Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Carolina de Assis Barros, Maurício Costa de Moura, Otávio Ribeiro Damaso, Paulo Sérgio Neves de Souza, Reinaldo Le Grazie, Sidnei Corrêa Marques, and Tiago Couto Berriel.
*Value obtained according to the usual procedure of rounding the average R$/US$ exchange rate observed on the five business days ending on the Friday prior to the Copom meeting.
Note: This press release represents the Copom’s best effort to provide an English version of its policy statement. In case of any inconsistency, the original version in Portuguese prevails.