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Palladium at $1,269: a deficit metal priced for surplus

Palladium is down 23% in 2026 while Nornickel projects a 100,000 oz deficit. The case for $1,450 by year-end: supply, substitution and the EU's ICE retreat.

Robinhood to $110 by year-end: the event-contract mix shift

Robinhood market call: $110 base by December 31, 2026 as event contracts outearn crypto for the first time — plus the deposit slowdown that could break the thesis at $78.

Nvidia to $224 into the August 26 print: the capex case

Nvidia at $206.75 heads to $224 by September 1 as hyperscaler capex prints meet a hawkish Fed. Base, bull and bear targets with four disconfirmation triggers.

USD/KRW to 1,520 by Q4 2026: the memory terms-of-trade case

The won has strengthened to 1,447.80 while the KOSPI fell 34%. That divergence closes as Chinese DRAM supply erodes Korea's terms of trade. Base case 1,520 by Q4 2026.

EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by Q4 2026: the franc-cap credibility test

EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by December 2026 from 0.9155. The mechanism is the SNB's stated willingness to intervene against franc strength — a soft floor, not a hard cap.

Japan’s 10-year JGB to 3.10% by Q4 2026: the faster-hike case

The 10-year JGB hit 2.77% as swaps price an 80% chance of an October BOJ hike to 1.25%. The path to 3.10% - and the CPI print that breaks it.

GBP/JPY to 205 by Q4 2026: the carry-cushion case

GBP/JPY at 218.15 sits above the entire forecast-house central tendency while the BOJ tightens faster than guided and Tokyo warns of decisive FX action. Base case 205.

USD/NOK to 9.20 by Q4 2026: the Nordic-divergence case

The krone has gained 7.72% on the euro in 2026 while the Swedish krona fell. USD/NOK reaches 9.20 by year-end on a Norges Bank hiking bias the G10 no longer shares.

USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: the carry-compression case

USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: Banxico is anchored at 6.50% while the Fed is priced to hike, compressing the carry from the US side. Levels and invalidation.

USD/CAD to 1.43 by Q3 2026: the oil-assumption case

USD/CAD to 1.4300 by September 30, 2026. The Bank of Canada's inflation forecast assumes oil falls - and elevated oil is what is holding the loonie up.

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