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Category: Market News

FOREX, Market News

USD/TRY path to 50 runs through the CBRT’s restarted repo auction

USD/TRY at 48.245 after the CBRT restarted one-week repo auctions on August 23, cutting effective funding 300bp. Base case 50.00 by October 31, 2026.

August 31, 2026

FOREX, Market News

EU carbon to €90 by year-end 2026: the surplus-floor case

EU carbon allowances closed at €82.87/t. The Market Stability Reserve intake from September 1 draws the ETS surplus to exactly 833 million — and to €90/t.

August 30, 2026

FOREX, Market News

ULSD to $4.40 by year-end 2026: the EIA forecast-gap case

US distillate stocks sit 9.5% below last year and exports run 28.5% higher, yet the EIA forecasts a Q4 build. The case for ULSD at $4.40 by year-end 2026.

August 29, 2026

FOREX, Market News

USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: the 3% target case

USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: SARB 3% target keeps the repo at 7% as CPI falls to 4.3%, widening the real rate while gold tops $4,500 and DXY sits below 100.

August 28, 2026

FOREX, Market News

OAT–Bund to 105bp by end-Q1 2027: the rating-crossover case

France's 10-year OAT yields more than Italy's BTP despite a far stronger rating. The OAT–Bund spread widens from 85.7bp to 105bp by end-Q1 2027.

August 27, 2026

FOREX, Market News

EUR/JPY to 179 by year-end: the vanishing carry case

EUR/JPY is at 185.70 after fully retracing the joint US-Japan yen intervention. The euro-Japan policy spread has been frozen since December 2025.

August 26, 2026

FOREX, Market News

UK 10-year gilt to 5.35% into the October Budget

The UK 10-year gilt yielded 5.0493% on August 25, 2026. Base case 5.35% by the October 28 Budget as fiscal supply risk and a rising CPI rebuild the premium.

August 25, 2026

FOREX, Market News

TTF to €85 by end-January 2027: the injection-arithmetic case

Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) front-month gas reaches €85/MWh by January 31, 2027 in the base case, €110/MWh in the bull case and €52/MWh in the bear case, on an […]

August 24, 2026

FOREX, Market News

Sugar to 19.50 cents by Q1 2027: the deficit-flip case

ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026. Six houses have flipped the 2026-27 balance into deficit: why the base case is 19.50 cents.