ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026. Six houses have flipped the 2026-27 balance into deficit: why the base case is 19.50 cents.
USD/JPY at 159.19 on August 19, 2026. The US-Japan two-year rate gap narrowed 19bp since August 3, yet the pair rose 1.93%. Base case 160.30 into Jackson Hole.
Tin settled at $56,225/t on August 17, 2026 while LME stocks fell 41% in two months to 5,320 tonnes. Base case $62,000 by year-end 2026, bull $68,000, bear $48,000.
LME zinc hit a four-year high as western warehouse stocks drained 21.2% in 30 days while China's export arbitrage stayed shut. Base case $4,100/t by Q4 2026.
Henry Hub spot is $2.79/MMBtu with Lower 48 storage 198 Bcf above the five-year average. The base case is $2.40 by October 30, 2026 - the storage-record call.
MKTX trades at $162.57 against ICE's contractual $167.00 cash offer - a 2.72% gross spread pricing a 10.7% deal-break risk. The antitrust case, both ways.
USD/JPY is 159.29 after the July 31 joint US-Japan intervention, retracing at 0.34 yen a session. Base case 163.50 by September 30, 2026; bear case 153.50.
LME nickel is $16,840/t despite Indonesia's one-third ore-quota cut. With 264,744 tonnes still in LME sheds, the base case is $15,000/t by year-end 2026.