EUR/NOK to 11.00 by Norges Bank's November 5 decision: the ECB's September hike has thinned the krone's rate premium and Norges Bank's FX flows now sell krone.
The RBOB-Brent gasoline crack has priced September's grade switch but none of the Hormuz product shock. Base case $46/bbl by October 30; invalidation $33.70.
EUR/SEK fixed at 11.1620 on September 7, 2026, a 12-month high. But the Riksbank governor has pre-announced a rise: the gap-compression case for 11.05.
Managed money added 191,573 net corn contracts in a fortnight, into the second-largest US crop on record. Why CZ26 targets 475 c/bu by the 14 December expiry.
Silver at $64.12, 8.7% below the August 28 LBMA fix. CFTC net length rose into the top and Warsh says the Fed has work to do. Base case $58 by September 30.
SOFR–IORB sits at 0bp against +22bp at the last year-end. The call: at or below +10bp on December 31, 2026, with the Standing Repo Facility as the ceiling.