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Category: FOREX

GBP/AUD to 1.84 by the November RBA decision: the divergence case

GBP/AUD trades at 1.8783 after a 100 basis point swing in the RBA-BoE policy gap. Base case 1.8400 by the November 3 RBA decision; 1.9200 invalidates.

USD/BRL to 5.45 by the October 25 runoff: the crowded-carry case

USD/BRL to 5.45 by October 25, 2026: CME speculative long-real positioning sits at the 99th percentile as Copom goes dark for 49 days into the runoff.

Corn to $4.75 by the December 14 expiry: the crowded-long case

Managed money added 191,573 net corn contracts in a fortnight, into the second-largest US crop on record. Why CZ26 targets 475 c/bu by the 14 December expiry.

Silver to $58 by September 30: the spec-length unwind case

Silver at $64.12, 8.7% below the August 28 LBMA fix. CFTC net length rose into the top and Warsh says the Fed has work to do. Base case $58 by September 30.

SOFR–IORB capped at 10bp into year-end: the fading-turn case

SOFR–IORB sits at 0bp against +22bp at the last year-end. The call: at or below +10bp on December 31, 2026, with the Standing Repo Facility as the ceiling.

USD/TRY path to 50 runs through the CBRT’s restarted repo auction

USD/TRY at 48.245 after the CBRT restarted one-week repo auctions on August 23, cutting effective funding 300bp. Base case 50.00 by October 31, 2026.

EU carbon to €90 by year-end 2026: the surplus-floor case

EU carbon allowances closed at €82.87/t. The Market Stability Reserve intake from September 1 draws the ETS surplus to exactly 833 million — and to €90/t.

ULSD to $4.40 by year-end 2026: the EIA forecast-gap case

US distillate stocks sit 9.5% below last year and exports run 28.5% higher, yet the EIA forecasts a Q4 build. The case for ULSD at $4.40 by year-end 2026.

USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: the 3% target case

USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: SARB 3% target keeps the repo at 7% as CPI falls to 4.3%, widening the real rate while gold tops $4,500 and DXY sits below 100.

OAT–Bund to 105bp by end-Q1 2027: the rating-crossover case

France's 10-year OAT yields more than Italy's BTP despite a far stronger rating. The OAT–Bund spread widens from 85.7bp to 105bp by end-Q1 2027.

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