EUR/USD near 1.167 is capped by a firm dollar, but the base case sees 1.20 by year-end as the Fed converges toward a neutral ECB. Bull 1.25, bear 1.13.
Gold sits near $4,600 after a sharp 2026 correction. Why $5,000 by Q3 is the base case — central-bank demand vs real yields, with four invalidation triggers.
WTI crude targets $72 by Q3 2026 as the US-Iran ceasefire reopens the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ unwinds cuts into a 2.3m bpd surplus. Base, bull, bear cases.
Platinum near $1,950/oz targets $2,300 by Q3 2026 on a fourth straight WPIC deficit and four-month-low stocks — plus the signals that would break the call.
The US 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.44% after a 4.70% May high, eases to a base-case 4.10% by the September FOMC as the Iran-war inflation premium unwinds.
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok