Managed money added 191,573 net corn contracts in a fortnight, into the second-largest US crop on record. Why CZ26 targets 475 c/bu by the 14 December expiry.
Silver at $64.12, 8.7% below the August 28 LBMA fix. CFTC net length rose into the top and Warsh says the Fed has work to do. Base case $58 by September 30.
SOFR–IORB sits at 0bp against +22bp at the last year-end. The call: at or below +10bp on December 31, 2026, with the Standing Repo Facility as the ceiling.
EU carbon allowances closed at €82.87/t. The Market Stability Reserve intake from September 1 draws the ETS surplus to exactly 833 million — and to €90/t.
US distillate stocks sit 9.5% below last year and exports run 28.5% higher, yet the EIA forecasts a Q4 build. The case for ULSD at $4.40 by year-end 2026.
USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: SARB 3% target keeps the repo at 7% as CPI falls to 4.3%, widening the real rate while gold tops $4,500 and DXY sits below 100.