Latest news by Abdelaziz Fathi
Nvidia to $280 by year-end 2026: the post-selloff value case
Nvidia (NVDA) reaches $280 by year-end 2026 in the base case, $350 in the bull case and $170 in the bear case. The base case treats the June 5 chip rout as a rate-driven multiple…
EUR/USD to 1.20 by year-end 2026: the dollar-overvaluation case
EUR/USD reaches 1.2000 by December 31, 2026 in the base case, 1.2500 in the bull case and 1.1300 in the bear case. The base case rests on a structurally overvalued dollar unwinding as the Federal…
S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q3 2026: the no-cuts repricing case
The S&P 500 (SPX) reaches 7,000 by September 30, 2026 in the base case, 7,800 in the bull case and 6,600 in the bear case. The base case rests on the market repricing from rate…
USD/JPY to 153 by Q3 2026: the BOJ-Fed carry-squeeze case
USD/JPY falls to 153 by September 30, 2026 in the base case, 147 in the bear case, and 164 in the bull case. The base case rests on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lifting its…
NZD/USD to 0.62 by Q3 2026: the hawkish-RBNZ and Fed-cut case
NZD/USD reaches 0.6200 by September 30, 2026 in the base case, 0.6500 in the bull case, and 0.5700 in the bear case. The base case rests on a rare central-bank divergence: the Reserve Bank of…
USD/CHF to 0.76 by Q3 2026: the Fed-SNB gap and haven case
USD/CHF grinds to 0.7600 by September 30, 2026 in the base case, 0.7400 in the bear (franc-strong) case, and 0.8050 in the bull (dollar-recovery) case, driven by a closing Federal Reserve-Swiss National Bank rate gap…
Gold to $5,000 by Q3 2026: the central-bank demand case
Gold (XAU/USD) reaches $5,000/oz by September 30, 2026 in the base case, $5,400 in the bull case, and $4,200 in the bear case. The base case rests on structural central-bank reserve diversification and an eventual…
WTI to $72 by Q3 2026: the Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ unwind case
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaches $72 per barrel by September 30, 2026 in the base case, $64 in the bear case, and $92 in the bull case. The base case rests on the reopening…
Platinum to $2,300 by Q3 2026: the structural-deficit case
Platinum (XPT/USD) reaches $2,300/oz by September 30, 2026 in the base case, $2,600 in the bull case and $1,800 in the bear case, anchored to a fourth consecutive structural supply deficit, four-month-low aboveground stocks, and…
US 10-year yield to 4.10% as the Iran inflation premium fades
The US 10-year Treasury yield eases to 4.10% by the September 17, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the base case, 3.90% in the bull (lower-yield) case, and 4.65% in the bear (higher-yield)…