EUR/USD to 1.18 by end-Q3 2026: the spread-compression case
EUR/USD at 1.1426 reaches 1.18 by end-Q3 2026 as the 1.38pp Fed-ECB spread compresses toward 0.88pp. Targets, the 2011 analogue risk, and what kills the call.
Abdelaziz Fathi
Senior Reporter, Brokers and Prop Firms
Abdelaziz Fathi covers the intersection of forex/CFD brokerage, regulation, liquidity, fintech, and digital assets. With a B.A. in Finance and hands-on industry exposure, Aziz blends analytical rigor with clear storytelling to make complex market structure understandable for traders, brokers, and fintech professionals.
July 2026
Copper to $6.60 by end-Q3 2026: the mine-supply crunch case
Copper to $6.60/lb by end-Q3 2026: Grasberg at 60%, Kamoa cut 22.5%, Chile down 9% — the mine-supply crunch case, targets and what would invalidate it.
Silver to $70 by end-Q3 2026: the deficit-plus-pivot case
Silver price forecast: $70/oz base case by September 30, 2026 on a sixth straight deficit and the Warsh repricing — levels, bank targets and what kills it.
Gold to $4,400 by end-Q3 2026: the Warsh-pivot upgrade
Gold price forecast upgraded: $4,400/oz base case by September 30, 2026 as Warsh turns dovish and June payrolls stall — levels, scenarios and what kills it.
WTI to $62 by end-Q3 2026: the supply-normalisation case
WTI price forecast: $62 by end-Q3 2026 as OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd, Hormuz flows top 10M bpd and 67M Iranian barrels loom. Levels, data and triggers.
NZD/USD to 0.60 by Q3 2026: the RBNZ hike-cycle case
NZD/USD to 0.60 by Q3 2026: NZ curve prices three RBNZ hikes as CPI heads to 4.2% while US hike bets unwind. Targets, levels and the four kill switches.
DXY to 99 by the September FOMC: the hike-unwind case
DXY falls to 99 by the September 2026 FOMC as hike premium bleeds: September odds dropped 67% to 50% on a 57K payrolls print. Invalidation: 102.5 weekly close.
US 10-year yield capped near 4.50% into Q3 2026: payroll-stall case
The US 10-year yield tested 4.50% and failed as June payrolls hit 57K. Why the base case is 4.25% by Q3 2026 — and the CPI print that breaks the call.
USD/JPY to 155 by Q3 2026: the ambush-intervention case
USD/JPY to 155 by Q3 2026: the NFP miss, Japan's new ambush intervention regime and a hiking BOJ squeeze the carry trade. Full levels and invalidation inside.
Gold capped near $4,200 into Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-hold case
Gold (XAU/USD) is capped near $4,200 into Q3 2026 as a hawkish-hold Fed keeps real yields high, while record central-bank buying sets the floor.
EUR/USD capped near 1.17 into Q3 2026: the twin-hawk case
EUR/USD holds a 1.13-1.17 range into Q3 2026 as a hawkish Fed and a newly hiking ECB cancel out — the twin-hawk case, with 1.22 bull and 1.10 bear targets.
June 2026
Nasdaq 100 capped near 32,500 into Q3 2026: the AI-capex case
Nasdaq 100 is capped near 32,500 into Q3 2026 (bull 35,000, bear 28,000) as record AI capex meets a hawkish Warsh Fed. Targets, levels and disconfirmation.
Platinum to $1,750 by Q3 2026: the deficit-floor case
Platinum has fallen ~15% to $1,632/oz on a one-year-high dollar, but WPIC still models a 2026 deficit. Base case $1,750 by Q3 2026, with a floor near $1,450.
USD/CHF to 0.78 by Q3 2026: the franc safe-haven case
USD/CHF heads to 0.78 by Q3 2026 as a soft dollar meets safe-haven franc demand — but the SNB's intervention readiness caps the move. Targets, levels, triggers.
S&P 500 capped near 7,650 into Q3 2026: the Warsh-hold case
S&P 500 forecast: the index stays capped near 7,650 into Q3 2026 as Warsh's hawkish Fed and a 22x forward P/E remove the rate tailwind. Base 7,300, bear 6,800.
WTI to $72 by Q3 2026: the Hormuz premium-unwind case
WTI crude to $72 by Q3 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium unwinds into a 2026 supply surplus — base, bull and bear cases, with disconfirmation.
GBP/USD to 1.31 by Q3 2026: the dollar-asymmetry case
GBP/USD to 1.31 by Q3 2026: a firmer dollar caps cable as US CPI at 4.2% tops the UK's 2.8%. Base, bull and bear targets, levels, and what breaks the call.
Copper to $12,500 by Q3 2026: the dollar-versus-deficit tug of war
Copper market call: a base case to $12,500/tonne by Q3 2026 as a hawkish-Fed dollar caps the metal, against a structural deficit and US tariff stockpiling bid.
Silver to $78 by Q3 2026: the post-correction deficit case
Silver to $78 by Q3 2026 base case ($92 bull, $54 bear): a sixth straight supply deficit and a gold/silver ratio near 65 set up catch-up as gold holds.
USD/JPY capped near 162 into Q3 2026: the intervention-ceiling case
USD/JPY sits near 160.30 after the BOJ's hike to 1% and the Fed's hawkish hold. Why a wide rate gap keeps it bid but the MoF intervention line caps it into Q3 2026.
Also filing this week: Rick Steves and Karthik Subramanian.