USD/CAD to 1.42 by Q3 2026: the Fed-hold rate-gap case
USD/CAD to 1.42 by Q3 2026: the Street's loonie-recovery call assumed Fed cuts, but the June 17 Warsh dot plot kept the rate gap wide. The base, bull and bear cases.
Abdelaziz Fathi
Senior Reporter, Brokers and Prop Firms
Abdelaziz Fathi covers the intersection of forex/CFD brokerage, regulation, liquidity, fintech, and digital assets. With a B.A. in Finance and hands-on industry exposure, Aziz blends analytical rigor with clear storytelling to make complex market structure understandable for traders, brokers, and fintech professionals.
June 2026
DXY to 102 by Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-hold case
The US Dollar Index targets 102 by Q3 2026 as the Warsh-led Fed holds and 2026 rate cuts get priced out. Base, bull and bear cases, with disconfirmation triggers.
Gold to $4,800 by Q3 2026: the central-bank-buying floor
Gold (XAU/USD) targets $4,800/oz by Q3 2026 as relentless central-bank buying floors the market against a hawkish Warsh Fed and elevated real yields.
EUR/USD stays capped near 1.16 as Warsh delays the 1.22 call
EUR/USD holds a 1.15-1.18 range into Q3 2026 as the Warsh-led Fed prices out 2026 cuts, keeping the rate gap wide and deferring the 1.22-1.25 year-end consensus.
US 30-year yield to 5.20% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case
The US 30-year Treasury yield, at 4.97%, grinds toward 5.20% by Q3 2026 on sticky 3.8% inflation, a rebuilding term premium and a hawkish Warsh Fed.
AUD/USD to 0.74 by Q3 2026: the RBA hawkish-hold case
AUD/USD targets 0.74 by Q3 2026 as the RBA holds at 4.35% while the Fed eases, widening the yield gap the commodity-linked Aussie tracks. Base, bull, bear.
WTI to $83 by Q3 2026: the Strait of Hormuz reopening case
WTI crude at $80 targets $83 by Q3 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with record-low inventories cushioning the fall. Base, bull and bear cases.
Tesla to $475 by year-end 2026: the SpaceX-merger case
Tesla trades near $392 after SpaceX's $1.77tn listing. Bull, base and bear targets for TSLA into year-end — and why the merger optionality now has a price.
Nasdaq 100 to 31,500 by Q3 2026: the Warsh-repricing case
The Nasdaq 100's 4.77% pre-FOMC drop is an uncertainty discount, not an AI repricing. Why Warsh's first Fed meeting opens the path to 31,500 by Q3 2026.
GBP/USD to 1.40 by year-end 2026: the BOE-lag case
GBP/USD to 1.40 by year-end 2026: the Fed cuts faster than a divided BOE, compressing the rate gap in sterling's favour. Targets, levels and triggers.
Copper to $14,500 by year-end 2026: the supply-shock case
Copper price forecast: a 640,000-ton deficit and a mid-year US tariff decision put LME copper at $14,500 by year-end 2026 — with $12,500 the bear floor.
Silver to $80 by Q3 2026: the ratio-compression case
Silver to $80 by Q3 2026 base case: the gold-silver ratio compression and sixth straight structural deficit, weighed against JPMorgan's froth warning.
Nvidia to $280 by year-end 2026: the post-selloff value case
Nvidia fell 6.2% to $205.10 in the June 5 chip rout, but Wall Street targets $280–$350. The base-case math for a re-rating, and where the bet breaks.
EUR/USD to 1.20 by year-end 2026: the dollar-overvaluation case
EUR/USD near 1.167 is capped by a firm dollar, but the base case sees 1.20 by year-end as the Fed converges toward a neutral ECB. Bull 1.25, bear 1.13.
S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q3 2026: the no-cuts repricing case
The S&P 500 fell 2.6% to 7,383.74 after a hot jobs print. Base case 7,000 by Q3 as the Fed-cut path reprices toward zero. Bull 7,800, bear 6,600.
USD/JPY to 153 by Q3 2026: the BOJ-Fed carry-squeeze case
USD/JPY sits at 159, overbought, as the BOJ hikes toward 1.0% and the Fed holds. Base case 153 by Q3 2026, bull 164, bear 147 on a carry unwind.
NZD/USD to 0.62 by Q3 2026: the hawkish-RBNZ and Fed-cut case
NZD/USD targets 0.62 by Q3 2026 as the RBNZ signals hikes while the Fed is priced to cut — a rare central-bank divergence reshaping the kiwi.
USD/CHF to 0.76 by Q3 2026: the Fed-SNB gap and haven case
USD/CHF targets 0.76 by Q3 2026 as the Fed-SNB rate gap closes and safe-haven demand lifts the franc, with SNB intervention the main risk to the call.
Gold to $5,000 by Q3 2026: the central-bank demand case
Gold sits near $4,600 after a sharp 2026 correction. Why $5,000 by Q3 is the base case — central-bank demand vs real yields, with four invalidation triggers.
WTI to $72 by Q3 2026: the Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ unwind case
WTI crude targets $72 by Q3 2026 as the US-Iran ceasefire reopens the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ unwinds cuts into a 2.3m bpd surplus. Base, bull, bear cases.
Also filing this week: Rick Steves and Karthik Subramanian.