Bank of Japan

Japan in Recession – Asian Stocks Mixed

Asian indices started the week mixed as investors reaccess the risks from the coronavirus outbreak and the impact in the global economy. Hubei province in China confirmed 1,933 new cases of coronavirus and 100 new deaths as of February 16.

Chinese government revised its methodology for reporting coronavirus infections leading to a sharp rise in the number of infections on Friday. PBOC, in an attempt to ease the economic impact, injected 200 billion yuan liquidity via a 1-year medium-term lending facility. PBOC also cut the rate on MLF to 3.15%, from 3.25%.  

Nikkei 225 finished 0.69% lower at 23523. Japan’s economy shrunk by 6.3% annualized in the fourth quarter. That is the biggest decline in GDP since Q2 2014 and the second-biggest drop since the Financial Crisis. The Hang Seng is 0.59% higher at 27978. The Singapore FTSE Straits Times finished 0.18% lower at 3214. The Shanghai Composite index closed up 2.18% at 2980. The ASX 200 index In Australia ended 0.07% lower at 7125, snapping a four-session winning streak. 

European stock indices are trading mixed. The German DAX is 0.05% higher at 13,752 close to all-time highs. CAC40 index is 0.17% lower at 6,082, while the FTSE MIB in Milan is 0.03% lower at 24,884. In London, the FTSE 100 is 0.06% higher at 7,456.  

investors reaccess risks
XAUUSD Daily Chart

In the commodities markets, crude oil is slightly higher, and the WTI crude is 0.21% higher at $52.15. Brent oil is 0.02% higher at $57.33 per barrel. Gold price is 0.11% lower at 1,582. The gold outlook is bullish as the gold trades above all crucial daily moving averages. The first resistance will be met at $1,611, the recent high, while the support stands at $1,447, the recent low. Silver is 0.33% higher at $17.68.    

Cryptocurrencies correction from yearly highs continues. Bitcoin is 0.99% lower at $9,809, hitting the daily low at $9,602 and the daily high at $9,995. Bitcoin momentum is positive as BTCUSD is trading above all major daily moving averages. Support for bitcoin stands now at $9,000, while the next significant support stands at 8,500. On the upside, resistance stands at 10,495 yearly top and then at 10,800 round mark. Ethereum ETHUSD trades 2.51% lower at 252.40, with capitalization dropping to 27.57 billion.

On the upside, immediate resistance for ETHUSD stands at $274.18 recent high while the support stands at $213.47, the February low. XRPUSD is 3.58% lower at 0.2824. Litecoin (LTCUSD) is 2.99% lower at 72.51. The crypto market cap capitalization is now at $282.14 billion.

In the Lookout: New Zealand Business PSI climbed from the previous point 51.9 to 57.1 in January.

Moody’s cut India 2020 GDP forecast to 5.4% vs. 6.6% previous. 

The Coronavirus outbreak remains key for the sentiment. UK economic health-check with CPI, retail sales, and PMI data are due. The minutes from the latest FOMC, ECB & RBA meetings will attract investors focus.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9795 versus the previous settlement at 6.9943. 

Trading Perspective: In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index (DXY) is 0.07% lower at 99.09. The AUDUSD is 0.7% lower at 0.6723. NZDUSD trades 0.08% higher at 0.6435. USDCHF pair is 0.02% lower at 0.9817.

GBPUSD trades 0.12% lower at 1.3028. The initial support for the GBP against the USD now stands at 1.28 low which if broken, might push the GBPUSD pair down towards 1.20. On the upside, the first resistance for GBPUSD stands at 1.32 and then at 1.3511 recent high.

investors reaccess risks
GBPUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD trades 0.15% higher at 1.0845 as the pair’s momentum is bearish. EURUSD broke below the 100-day moving average, and now sellers are in control. The first resistance for the pair will be met at 1.1224, the yearly high. On the other hand, the first support is at 1.0833 today’s low and then at 1.0803.

USDJPY is trading 0.09% higher at 109.87, having hit the daily low at 109.71 and the daily high at 109.87. The USDJPY will meet first support at 105.43 the August low. On the upside, resistance for the USDJPY now stands at 110.27 January high.

USDCAD trades 0.14% higher at 1.3229. The USDCAD will meet support at 1.2950 the recent low while the next support level stands at 1.29 round figure. On the other side, resistance will be met at the 1.3066, the high from December 31.