Cocoa certified stocks still decide the exchange margin
Cocoa certified stocks still set the exchange margin. Base case $5,200 into the December London last trading day; a weekly price above $5,950 ends the path.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
317 stories since 2018
November 2026
Heating oil to $4.70: the distillate-stock case
New York Harbor heating oil at $4.47 a gallon is aimed at $4.70 by January 30, 2027, with weekly US distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average.
FTSE 250 to 24,796: the priced Bank Rate step
The FTSE 250 reclaims 24,795.85 by the 5 November 2026 close if a step to 4% Bank Rate is priced. A close below 24,618.35 breaks the call.
VIX to 19.55: spot is rich to the curve
VIX spot at 20.83 is 1.28 points above the December VIX settlement. The base case is 19.55 into the next FOMC decision, and a close above 23.93 ends it.
KOSDAQ to 674: the hike-bias case
KOSDAQ's base case is 674.42 into the next Bank of Korea meeting after a 704.39 close, with the Board still pointing to further base-rate hikes.
MDAX to 29,555.05 on the Bundesbank rate path
MDAX reaches 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026 as the Bundesbank transmits a 2.50% deposit facility and German banks tighten enterprise credit.
Lumber to $496: the housing-starts case
LBRF27 last was $515.00 on October 30. The base case is $496.00 on the housing-starts path, and a weekly close above $524.50 breaks it.
Sensex back to 73,123.83 on the next RBI hike
The BSE Sensex base case is 73,123.83 by December 4, 2026 if the RBI hikes the 5.50% repo rate again. A close above 74,729.27 breaks the bearish call.
October 2026
Natural gas to $3.10 as the storage surplus thins
Natural gas at $2.76 sits under the October average while Lower 48 stocks are only 1.0% above the five-year norm. The base case is $3.10.
Arabica to 310 cents: the first-notice tightness case
December arabica reaches 310.00 cents by November 18, 2026 as certified stocks sit near a 27-year low into first notice. A close under 280.80 breaks the path.
Platinum to $1,551: the positioning washout case
NYMEX platinum reaches $1,551 by November 20, 2026 in the base case after managed-money length fell to 1,765 contracts. A close under $1,422.40 ends the call.
Palladium fades to $935.30 under a failed $1,000 break
NYMEX palladium at $987.70 carries a base case of $935.30, with managed-money shorts at 70.0% of open interest. Settlement above $1,000 ends the call.
CSI 300 to 4,176.06 on an unchanged loan prime rate
CSI 300 reaches 4,176.06 in the base case if the next loan prime rate fixing leaves both tenors at 3.0% and 3.5%. A close below 4,030.23 ends that path.
STOXX 600 to 631: the tighter-financing case
STOXX 600 last printed 649.11. Base case 631 into the December 17 ECB press conference, as a 35 bp rise in sovereign yields tightens euro-area financing.
Jakarta Composite to 5,439.26: the BI-Rate hold case
Jakarta Composite base case is 5,439.26 into the next Bank Indonesia decision, using the completed October 28 close of 5,282.31. A close under 4,996.61 ends it.
Shanghai Composite to 3,735.37 on an LPR hold
The Shanghai Composite base case is a return to 3,735.37 if the next Loan Prime Rate fixing holds the one-year rate at 3.0% and the over-five-year rate at 3.5%.
BIST 100 to 11,577.12 under a still-tight real rate
BIST 100 reaches 11,577.12 by the November inflation report in the base case, with 11,947.18 if guidance eases and 10,707.18 if the inflation path is lifted.
KOSPI to 6,193: the halfway case on the Base Rate
KOSPI base case is 6,193.45 into the next Bank of Korea decision, halfway back from the September close to the October low. Under 5,305.98 the path ends.
OMXS30 fades to 3,162.78 under the Riksbank rate path
OMXS30 fades to 3,162.78 if the Riksbank keeps a 2026 rate increase live. Bull case 3,306.18, bear case 3,148.54. A close above 3,290.36 ends it.
BEL 20 to 5,844.79: the halfway case on an ECB hold
BEL 20 closed at 5,783.75 on Euronext Brussels. An unchanged 2.50% deposit rate maps the base case to 5,844.79 at the next ECB press conference.