EURUSD Corrects Lower, US – Sino Trade Talks Ended with no Deal

Trade talks in Washington between the two biggest economies ended without a deal. Trump has insisted that if a satisfactory deal is not reached, the tariffs will be imposed at the deadline. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3 below analyst’s forecasts (49.5) in January. The reading was the lowest since early 2016.  The Shanghai Composite index outperformed the Asian peers reporting 1.30 percent gains at 2,618. In Tokyo Nikkei 225 ended 0.07 percent higher at 20,788 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.13% to 27,908. Aussie stocks finished 2 points lower at 5862.

Yields on two-year Treasuries were down 15 basis points on the week, which if remains would be the largest weekly decline since mid-2010. Crude oil lost 44 cents to settle at $53.79 per barrel as did the Brent oil, which dropped 70 cents to $60.84/per barrel.

On the Lookout: US President Trump said on Thursday that he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to seal a deal on trade — speaking at the White House during a meeting with Chinese vice premier Liu He following two days of trade talks between US and Chinese delegates. On the economic calendar, the UK manufacturing PMI update will be released at 9.30am (UK time), and 53.5 is the consensus estimate. Later, more manufacturing PMI data from across Europe and from the U.S. will make headlines. In the US, Nonfarm payrolls will be the key event released at 1330 GMT, while we expect a bunch of companies to report such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp, Honeywell Inc. and drugmaker Merck & Co.

Trading Perspective: In forex markets today the US Dollar index is 0.02 percent higher at 95.57, the Kiwi is trading lower against USD down to 0.69 while Euro is adding 0.11 percent to 0.8741 against the pound and 0.01 percent against the Swiss Franc.  

EURUSD was under selling pressure during the Asian session after the pair rejected at 1.15. Now bulls are waiting at the 100-day moving average at 1.1450 area which if breached will drive prices down to 1.1415 the low from yesterday.  

EURUSD Daily Chart

In EUR futures markets open interest rose for the second session in a row on Thursday, this time by around 2.9K contracts from Wednesday’s final 528,527 contracts. In the same line, the volume went up by nearly 13.4K contracts, recording the third daily advance in a row.

AUDUSD is trading 0.36 percent lower to 0.7249 after weaker Chinese data. The pair will face resistance at 0.7296 yesterday high while support stands at 0.7228 and then at 0.7185 the weekly low.

GBPUSD is trading slightly lower at 1.3107 as traders await the UK manufacturing PMI data and the US payrolls for further clues. Traders trimmed their open interest positions by almost 4.4K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 202,157 contracts, according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume followed suit, down by around 2.8K contracts.

XAUUSD is down 0.13 percent to $1318,25 after touched yesterday the 9-month highs. The correction is supported by greenback strength and bulls are looking for the support at 1312 which if breached will accelerate the fall down to $1300 psychological mark.

XAUUSD Daily Chart