US 10-year to 4.85% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case

US 10-year to 4.85% by Q3 2026: the…

The US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.85% by September 30, 2026 in the base case, 5.10% in the bull-yield case and 4.30% in the bear-yield case, driven by a term-premium repricing that consensus forecasts have…

S&P 500 to 7,650 by year-end 2026: the 22.5x multiple case

S&P 500 to 7,650 by year-end 2026: the…

Base case: the S&P 500 reaches 7,650 by year-end 2026 on a 22.5× multiple applied to $340 of 2026 earnings per share. Bull case 8,100 (23.8×), bear case 7,100 (20.9×). The mechanism is multiple arithmetic,…