units, levels, department, inflation expectations

Bank of Russia: Monitoring sectoral financial flows: stabilisation at lower levels

Economic activity in Russia remains subdued, as declining external demand and the anti-pandemic restrictions in place are taking their toll. Over the fourth non-work week, incoming payments showed a slightly rising (20.8%) deviation from their ‘normal’ levels compared to the third week (20.3%). This points to the stabilisation of economic activity at a lower level, as notes the third volume of Monitoring Sectoral Financial Flows, a weekly Bank of Russia review.

The deviation from the ‘normal’ level, excluding mining and quarrying and oil products output, increased to 18.8% over the fourth non-work week compared with 17.4% of the previous week. This was largely assisted by the dynamics of income flows of the ‘general government activities,’ i.e. various taxes and contributions to the budget and extra-budgetary funds.

The dynamics of outgoing payments in the majority of sectors broadly match the dynamics of incoming payments. This may suggest both a fast response of procurement activities and cost management by businesses to changes in demand for their products, and an increase in defaults on payments given the shortage of working capital and liquid assets.

The methodology for calculations is being refined. Therefore, estimates, including retrospective ones, may be subject to further adjustments.