USD Strength Likely to Persist Post NFP Surpassing Expectations

March saw a robust surge in job creation, surpassing expectations with the addition of 303,000 nonfarm payrolls.

This impressive growth, coupled with steady figures from previous months, has propelled the three-month average to its strongest pace in a year, reaching 276,000. Notably, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, reflecting a rebound in household employment metrics.




Source: Finlogix


The uptick in labour force participation, reaching a four-month high of 62.7%, underscores the resilience of labour supply, which has played a crucial role in sustaining hiring momentum while mitigating inflationary pressures. However, wage growth experienced a slowdown, hitting a three-year low of 4.1% year-over-year.

The latest economic forecast update suggests a nuanced stance by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), initially projecting a 100-basis-point easing in monetary policy this year. However, recent data hint at a more conservative approach, given the robustness of the labour market. This inclination underscores the FOMC’s patience in awaiting further progress on the inflation front before considering policy adjustments.

March’s employment landscape showcased significant growth across sectors, with healthcare, government, and leisure & hospitality leading the charge. Construction and retail trade also contributed notably to the overall expansion. Despite these positive indicators, concerns persist about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory.

Looking ahead, while the labour market remains resilient, signs of a potential slowdown in hiring plans and job openings warrant cautious optimism. Businesses, increasingly satisfied with current staffing levels, alongside a slight uptick in layoffs, suggest a more balanced labour market outlook. However, the possibility of a sudden downturn necessitates vigilance among FOMC members.

Ultimately, the primary goal remains to restore inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%, with further progress awaited before any policy adjustments. As analysts await upcoming reports, particularly the CPI report and the Employment Cost Index, the strength of the labour market implies a deliberate approach by the FOMC in charting the course ahead.

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