Global FX Market Summary: EUR, Gold,CAD February 19th, 2024

Financial markets wait cautiously: EUR treads water, gold cautiously shines, stocks mixed, loonie waits, USD holds ground, all awaiting key data later this week.

EUR/USD treads water: The euro is stuck in a narrow range against the dollar, lacking major data and with US markets closed. While technicals hint at a possible dip, the outlook remains uncertain. Germany’s potential recession, however, could cast a shadow on the euro.

Gold shines cautiously: Gold extends its rally above $2,010, defying the Fed’s hawkish tone. However, resistance looms at the 20-day moving average and a downward trendline. Investors await FOMC Minutes and PMI data for further clues on the metal’s direction.

Stocks trade sideways: European bourses end mixed, with some gains and losses. US markets take a breather on Presidents’ Day. All eyes are on FOMC Minutes and PMI data for guidance later this week.

Canadian Dollar waits in the wings: The loonie trades cautiously ahead of key events. Tuesday’s Canadian CPI inflation and Wednesday’s Fed minutes will be crucial for its next move.

US Dollar holds its ground: The greenback stays calm with US markets closed for a holiday. Geopolitical tensions linger, but the focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s PMI data for potential action.

Upcoming Economic Events: Summary (as of February 19, 2024)

  • Wednesday, February 21st:
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00 GMT):
    • Hawkish tone: Stocks dip, gold struggles, US dollar rises temporarily.
    • Dovish surprise (unlikely): Stocks & gold surge, US dollar weakens.
  • Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT):
    • Minor increase: Neutral impact.
    • Jump to 230K+: Recession concerns, hope for rate cuts.
    • Drop to 200K-: Strong labor market, delays rate cuts.
  • Flash PMIs (14:45 GMT):
    • Below 50: Slowdown concerns, potential rate cuts.
    • Above 50: Economic resilience, unlikely rate cuts.