“Looking ahead in 2024, a recession seems increasingly unlikely, but economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2024 as the effects of monetary policy take a broader toll, and eyes will be on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.”
A survey conducted by Monex revealed significant optimism among retail investors in the U.S., Japan, and China (Hong Kong) regarding U.S. stocks.
The 31st Monex Global Retail Investor Survey included 2,313 participants from Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited.
Dow Jones may climb as high as 40,000
Key insights include a substantial increase in the forecast Diffusion Index (DI) for major world stock markets, rising 62 points from the previous survey in December 2022 to a positive score of 38. This indicates increased confidence among retail investors across these regions. Notably, over 91% of U.S. respondents anticipate positive performance for U.S. stock markets in the near future.
The survey also provided specific expectations for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2024. A majority of Japanese (52.7%) and U.S. (48.6%) respondents predict the DJIA’s peak to be between 36,000 and 40,000. Conversely, the anticipated low varies, with the highest number of Japanese (44.4%) and Chinese (Hong Kong) (41.8%) respondents expecting it between 27,000 and 31,000, while 42.9% of U.S. respondents foresee it between 31,000 and 35,000.
Monex Group, a major online financial institution, operates in Japan, the U.S., China (including Hong Kong), and Australia, offering services in online retail brokerages, forex, asset management, investor education, and M&A advisory.
The group’s US subsidiary, TradeStation Group was founded in 1982 and provides fintech tools and online brokerage services, aiming to link global financial markets through its offerings.
John Bartleman, President and CEO of TradeStation, said: “In 2023, the U.S. in particular had solid economic growth as expectations for a soft landing in the economy pushed up stock prices, along with the end of the rising interest rate environment. Looking ahead in 2024, a recession seems increasingly unlikely, but economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2024 as the effects of monetary policy take a broader toll, and eyes will be on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.”
